Introducing the Club for Growth Senate Control Index
On various political trading markets, including the Iowa Electronic Markets and Tradesports among others, you can find the current prices for who will control the House or Senate. What you can't find is what the market thinks about how many seats each party will control.
There isn't sufficient data to do this now for the House. But there is data, though it is thin, for the Senate. So today we introduce the Club for Growth Senate Control Index. This interprets current trading data predictions for the number of Senate seats for each party in the next Congress.
Trading right now shows Republicans with 51.839 seats, up 0.114 seats from three days ago. Obviously, you can't have a fraction of a senator (though you'd not know it given how some of them act), but this gives you an idea of how things might wind up based on current trades.
In compiling this index, we ignore any Senate race with one candidate trading at 95 cents or better. Given some trading anomalies, the seats do not add to 100 today.
Here are the state by state numbers and totals:
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