The Club's Nationwide Election Poll
Club President Pat Toomey wrote an op-ed in today's Wall Street Journal detailing the key findings from a nationwide election poll that the Club conducted on Sunday. Here's an excerpt from the op-ed and below the fold are the poll results.
Nancy Pelosi's San Francisco district will always support universal health care, and Jeff Flake's Arizona district will always support less government. But the 12 districts we surveyed represent the political middle of the country, and in this cycle their partisan allegiances changed. The question is, have their opinions on the issues changed as well? The answer is emphatically no.
Consider the most salient aspects of Mr. Obama's economic agenda: the redistribution of wealth through higher taxes on America's top earners; the revival of the death tax; raising the tax on capital gains and dividend income; increased government spending; increased government involvement in the housing crisis; a restriction on offshore drilling and oil exploration in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR); and "card check" legislation stripping workers of their right to a secret ballot in union elections.
On each of these issues, swing voters stand starkly against Mr. Obama. According to the Club's poll, 73% of voters prefer the federal government to focus on "creating economic conditions that give all people opportunities to create wealth through their own efforts" over "spreading wealth from higher income people to middle and lower income people." Two-thirds of respondents prefer to see the permanent elimination of the death tax, and 65% prefer to keep capital gains and dividend tax rates at their current lows.
PARTY PREFERENCES
Q: If the election for president was held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama, the Democrat, and John McCain, the Republican, for whom would you vote?
- Obama: 47.8%
- McCain: 44.1%
- Undecided: 8.1%
Q: Would you prefer to see the Democrats or the Republicans in control of Congress when the new Congress meets in January?
- Democrats: 45.1%
- Republicans: 40.3%
- DK/Refused: 14.6%
Q: Regardless of whom you plan to vote for, if Barack Obama won the presidential election, and if Democrats won very large majorities in both houses of Congress, which of the following phrases would best describe how you would feel?
- Satisfied: 28.8%
- Uneasy: 27.4%
- Frightened: 21.8%
- Thrilled: 17.5%
- DK/Refused: 4.6%
BAILOUT
Q: Congress recently approved a $700 billion plan to purchase bad debts from and invest in banks, insurance companies, and other financial institutions. Some people think this was good because it could prevent bank failures and other severe economic problems. Other people think this was bad because it places the financial burden on taxpayers for the risky moves that these businesses undertook. Which of those viewpoints comes closer to your own?
- Bailout was good: 32.6%
- Bailout was bad: 49.1%
- DK/Refused: 18.3%
Q: Which of the following views comes closer to your own? Some people say the federal government should guarantee mortgages for people who cannot afford their payments so they avoid foreclosure on their homes. Other people say the federal government should not guarantee mortgages because that forces people who were careful and did not live beyond their means to pay for others who bought more expensive homes than they could not afford.
- Should guarantee: 20.1%
- Should not guarantee: 70.8%
- DK/Refused: 9.1%
Q: In general, do you think the federal government is trying to do too many things that are better left to individuals, families, and businesses; or, do you think the federal government should do more to solve the country's problems?
- Does too many things: 53.9%
- Should do more: 39.1%
- DK/Refused: 7.0%
SPENDING
Q: All things being equal, which type of candidate for Congress would you be more likely to vote for? A candidate who wants to reduce overall federal spending, even if that includes cutting some money that would come to your district. Or a candidate who is willing to increase overall spending on federal programs and grow the federal budget, in order to get more spending and projects for your district.
- Cut spending: 66.3%
- Bring projects: 23.4%
- DK/Refused: 10.4%
Q: What percentage of federal government spending in Washington would you consider wasteful? Would you say less than 10%, between 10% and 25%, between 25% and 50%, or more than 50% of Washington spending is wasteful?
- Less than 10%: 6.0%
- Between 10% and 25%: 28.9%
- Between 25% and 50%: 30.9%
- More than 50%: 22.9%
- DK/Refused: 11.4%
TAXES
Q: Which do you think is a better goal for federal government economic policy: Spreading wealth from higher income people to middle and lower income people; or creating economic conditions that give all people opportunities to create wealth through their own efforts?
- Spreading wealth: 21.3%
- Better econ condition: 73.1%
- DK/Refused: 5.6%
Q: The 2003 federal tax cuts lowered tax rates on capital gains and dividend income. Those taxes will go up next year if Congress does not extend the tax cuts. Do you support extending the current lower rates on capital gains and dividends, or do you support allowing those taxes to go up?
- Extend lower rates: 64.8%
- Allow taxes to go up: 23.6%
- DK/Refused: 11.6%
Q: The 2003 federal tax cuts lowered income tax rates across the board, cutting the lowest tax rate from 15% down to 10%, and cutting the highest tax rate from 39.6% down to 35%. In two years, those rates will return to their previously higher levels if Congress does not extend the tax cuts. Do you support extending the current lower income tax rates, or do you support allowing the income tax cuts to expire and let rates return to their previous higher levels?
- Extend tax cuts: 62.1%
- Allow cuts to expire: 25.8%
- DK/Refused: 12.1%
Q: The 2001 federal tax cuts phased out the inheritance tax, also known as the Death Tax. The law is currently scheduled to completely eliminate the Death Tax in two years, but then it allows the Death Tax to return in the year 2011. Would you prefer to have the Death Tax permanently eliminated, or would you prefer to see the tax brought back in 2011?
- Permanent elimination: 66.1%
- Brought back in 2011: 19.8%
- DK/Refused: 14.1%
Q: What do you think should be the highest tax rate a person should have to pay after earning a million dollars in one year? Do you think millionaires should pay a maximum tax rate of 15%, 25%, 35%, 45%, or 75%?
- 15 percent: 12.9%
- 25 percent: 18.8%
- 35 percent: 29.6%
- 45 percent: 13.5%
- 75 percent: 4.9%
- DK/Refused: 20.4%
OIL EXPLORATION
Q: Some people say allowing oil exploration in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska would harm a great national environmental treasure, and not do much to help lower energy and gas prices. Other people say Alaska oil drilling would only affect a small and very remote area, and we have to explore such options to help reduce energy and gas prices and give America energy independence. Which of those views comes closest to your own?
- Harm environment: 30.0%
- Reduce gas prices: 62.3%
- DK/Refused: 7.8%
Q: Do you support or oppose allowing drilling for oil and natural gas off America's coastlines?
- Support: 74.8%
- Oppose: 17.8%
- DK/Refused: 7.5%
LABOR
Q: When workers are considering whether to join a labor union, do you think labor union membership elections should be by secret ballot, or by signing a card in public where other workers will know how you vote?
- Secret ballot: 84.6%
- Sign card in public: 7.6%
- DK/Refuse: 7.8%
SOCIAL SECURITY
On the issue of Social Security, do you favor or oppose allowing younger workers the option of investing a portion of their Social Security funds into personal savings accounts that they would own and control?
- Favor: 51.1%
- Oppose: 43.3%
- DK/Refused: 5.6%
FREE TRADE
Q: Do you think free trade between American and foreign countries is generally a good thing because it opens foreign markets to exports which helps create American jobs and gives American consumers more affordable products, or do you think free trade is generally a bad thing because other countries use unfair trading practices and American companies and jobs end up moving overseas?
- Free trade good: 47.4%
- Free trade bad: 41.0%
- DK/Refused: 11.6%
VIEW OF REPUBLICAN PARTY
Q: When you look at Washington today, please tell me whether you think the Republicans or the Democrats have better ideas on each issue? If you see no major difference between the parties on these issues, just say so.
"Promoting economic growth"
- Republicans: 32.1%
- Democrats: 36.1%
- No difference: 23.5%
- DK/Refused: 8.3%
"Controlling Washington spending"
- Republicans: 35.1%
- Democrats: 29.9%
- No difference: 27.0%
- DK/Refused: 8.0%
Q: Now tell me whether you think the following phrases better describe the Republicans or the Democrats in Washington.
"The party of fiscal responsibility"
- Republicans: 29.1%
- Democrats: 25.3%
- Both: 8.5%
- Neither: 28.8%
- DK/Refused: 8.4%
"The party that supports taxpayer bailouts for big corporations"
- Republicans: 43.4%
- Democrats: 15.9%
- Both: 25.8%
- Neither: 7.3%
- DK/Refused: 7.8%
"The party that gave us the Bridge to Nowhere"
- Republicans: 47.5%
- Democrats: 13.5%
- Both: 10.3%
- Neither: 10.5%
- DK/Refused: 18.3%
Q: Would you agree or disagree with the following statement? "The Republicans used to be the party of economic growth, fiscal discipline, and limited government, but in recent years, too many Republicans in Washington have become just like the big spenders that they used to oppose."
- Agree: 80.6%
- Disagree: 13.0%
- DK/Refused: 6.4%
METHODOLOGY
This survey of public opinion in 12 congressional districts across the nation was conducted November 1-2, 2008, among 800 likely general election voters. All interviews were conducted by professional interviewers by telephone. Interview selection was at random from among lists of registered voters with a history of voting in general elections in each district. The sample was equally weighted among the 12 districts. The accuracy of this survey with 800 likely voters is within +/-3.46% at a 95% confidence interval.
THE DISTRICTS
The survey was conducted in the following 12 congressional districts: Arizona-01; Colorado-04; Florida-08; Minnesota-03; Nevada-03; New Jersey-03; New York-13; North Carolina-08; Ohio-16; Pennsylvania-03; Illinois-11; and Virginia-11.
These 12 districts have the following significant characteristics:
- All were House seats that were held by Republicans going into this election (5 by incumbent Republicans seeking reelection; 7 open seats left by retiring Republicans incumbents.)
- The districts were distributed evenly throughout the country: 3 in the Northeast; 3 in the South; 3 in the West; 3 in the Midwest.
- The districts were evenly distributed by party affiliation: 37% Republican, 40% Democrat; 19% Independent/Other.
- In 2004, President Bush carried all districts with a narrow average of 53%.
- On Election Day 2008, Democrats were elected to replace Republicans in all but one of these 12 districts (Minnesota-03).
