Minnesota Senate Recount Now Tilts to GOP's Coleman
The Star-Tribune reported late yesterday that "While a tiny margin [last count at 282] separates the candidates in the Minnesota U.S. Senate race, it is wide enough that Democrat Al Franken faces a daunting task in challenging votes to erase Sen. Norm Coleman's lead. . .
"To win his case before the state Canvassing Board, Franken must prevail on more than 6 percent of his challenges of Coleman votes even if Coleman fails to succeed on any of his challenges, a Star Tribune analysis shows."
The newspaper published a nice graphic showing in more detail the math behind the story.
Even Five Thirty Eight.com says "For now, however, the various iterations if the statistical process that we applied before now show Norm Coleman as the slight favorite, although his edge is small and might reverse itself if Franken is able to get discarded absentee ballots reconsidered."
However the election is hardly in the bag for Coleman, as not everything has been counted and there is a great deal of uncertainty about the quality of the challenges each campaign has made to various disputed ballots other than a lot of frivolous challenges have been made.
There are two other wild cards -- a possible court challenge of discarded absentee ballots and the possible intervention of the US Senate, which has ultimate jurisdiction in declaring what members to seat.
On that front, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) issued a statement that seems to indicate he is not afraid to decide the election. After Wednesday's decision on absentee ballots, Reid issued a statement that said "Today's decision by the Minnesota Canvassing Board not to count certain absentee ballots is cause for great concern." So it is possible that even if Minnesota decides certain ballots must not be counted under state law, that Harry Reid would apply his own standard.
