New Poll in Florida Senate Race
Yesterday, the Club for Growth released some poll results in the Florida Senate race. Here is a memo that outlines those results. Here's a PDF version as well.
MethodologyThis Florida statewide survey of public opinion was conducted June 13-14, 2009, among 500 likely Republican primary election voters throughout the state. All interviews were conducted by professional interviewers by telephone. Interview selection was at random from among lists of registered voters with a history of voting in Florida GOP primary elections. The sample was constructed to statistically correlate with actual voter distributions in the statewide GOP primaries. The accuracy of this survey with 500 likely voters is within +/-4.38% at a 95% confidence interval.
Key FindingsGovernor Charlie Crist begins the U.S. Senate GOP primary with a significant lead over former Speaker Marco Rubio.
Q: If the Republican primary election for U.S. Senator was held today, and the candidates were Charlie Crist and Marco Rubio, for whom would you vote?
A: Crist 50.6% Rubio 20.6% Undecided 28.8% However, Crist begins with 99% soft name ID, compared to Rubio's 61%. With universal name ID, Crist's ballot position at just a hair over 50% puts him in a potentially vulnerable spot.
When basic information is provided about Marco Rubio, the race changes dramatically.
Q: Now I want to tell you some things about Marco Rubio. Marco Rubio is a fiscal and social conservative who represented West Miami in the Florida House for eight years, where he was a close ally and strong supporter of Governor Jeb Bush. He held several Republican leadership positions, culminating in his election as Speaker of the Florida House in 2007 and 2008. In the Legislature, Rubio led efforts to preserve private property rights, cut property taxes, and block the expansion of gambling. Rubio is 38 years old, married, with four children, and has degrees from the University of Florida and University of Miami. Many people consider him a "rising star" among Florida Republicans.
Knowing all of this, if the Republican primary election for U.S. Senator was held today, and the candidates were Marco Rubio and Charlie Crist, for whom would you vote?
A: Crist 32% Rubio 33.6% Undecided 34.4% Rubio's 13-point gain from the initial ballot test to the informed ballot test is not surprising; after all, when positive information is provided, one should expect a candidate's support level to rise. What is more notable is the collapse in Crist's support. Without any negative or positive information provided about Crist, he drops nearly 19 points in the face of just positive information about Rubio. This suggests a softness in Crist's support level, which began at just over 50%.
Several features of the issue terrain and priorities among Florida GOP primary voters work to Crist's disadvantage. As the campaign becomes more engaged, one could expect the candidates' positions on these matters to become better known to voters.
Q: Please tell me whether you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Barack Obama.
A: Favorable 15.4% Unfavorable 67.8% No opinion/unsure 16.8% Crist's arm-in-arm rallies with Obama this spring are not good material for him with GOP primary voters.
Q: Congress recently approved President Obama's proposal for an $800 billion economic recovery and stimulus plan. Some people say this package of spending increases and tax cuts is an essential step toward getting the economy moving and creating new jobs. Other people say such government spending programs do not help the economy and piling more debt onto future generations is bad policy. Which of these viewpoints comes closer to your own?
A: Stimulus was good 16.8% Stimulus was bad 75.2% No opinion/unsure 8% Crist strongly supported the stimulus plan, actively encouraged Florida members of congress to support it, and campaigned around Florida with President Obama supporting it.
Q: All things being equal, for whom would you be more likely to vote for U.S. Senate? A candidate who wants to cut overall federal spending, even if that includes cutting some money that would come to Florida. Or, a candidate who is willing to increase overall spending on federal programs, as long as more federal spending and projects come to Florida.
A: Cut spending 79% Increase spending 12.4% No opinion/unsure 8.6% Crist's argument in favor of the Obama stimulus plan nearly mirrors that described in this question. By sharp contrast, primary voters strongly prefer spending cuts.
Q: Which would you prefer to see the Republicans in Congress do: 1) stand up for conservative principles and do their best to block President Obama's agenda; or 2) compromise with President Obama and the Congressional Democrats to reach bipartisan solutions?
A: Fight for principles 56% Compromise 37.4% No opinion/unsure 6.6% Crist's message once again is on the wrong side of a majority of Florida Republicans.
In addition, several items in Governor Crist's record were specifically tested with likely primary voters. His support for the stimulus, support for two large tax increases in Florida, support for expanding government health care through the S-CHIP program, and his support for Obama's job killing cap-and-trade proposal all yield between 57% and 67% of primary voters saying they are less likely to vote for Crist.
ConclusionCharlie Crist begins the Florida GOP primary in a borderline position, not in the overwhelmingly strong position that many commentators suggest. If Marco Rubio has the resources to get a positive message out about his background, record, and priorities, the race will likely become very competitive. Florida primary voters are strongly conservative and heavily against more spending and debt from Washington. Crist's record of support for the Obama stimulus, for tax increases, for government health care, and for "cap and trade" all make it harder for him to prevail.
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