CFG Podcast - Tom McClintock
Andrew Roth
Earlier today, I spoke with California State Senator Tom McClintock, who recently won his race in California's 4th congressional district. I spoke with him about the election, his future in the U.S. House, and much more. There's even a Lightening Round at the end of the interview!
If the player isn't working for you, or if you prefer to download the podcast directly to your computer, right click here and hit "Save Link As...".
McClintock's Opponent Concedes in CA-4 Race
David Keating
Yesterday Democrat Charlie Brown conceded defeat in the California 4 race, which means no recount and Club for Growth PAC-endorsed candidate Tom McClintock will be sworn in next month.
We appreciate that Mr. Brown saved California taxpayers the expense of the recount and the graceful nature of his concession statement.
133 Ballots Go Missing in Minnesota, or Not
David Keating
The latest twist in the Minnesota recount is that 133 ballots in a heavily Democratic precinct disappeared yesterday. Or maybe not. In any event, when they counted the votes the first time they got 133 more than they did on the recount. So either the recount is right or the original count is right.
It does look like 133 went missing. If they can't find them this raises an interesting question, which is which count do they take? No one knows of course, but the Franken campaign filed a protest.
It appears to cost Franken 46 votes, with the lower recount number.
An interesting aside, which is that of the 2,029 voters in the original count, an incredible 932 voters registered in person on Election Day.
You can read more at the Star-Tribune or Five Thirty Eight.com
Thursday's Daily News
Andrew Roth
THE DAILY NEWS
GM, Chrysler May Accept Bankruptcy to Receive Bailout - Bloomberg.com
False Cures for the Recession - Steve Chapman, Reason
Financial Statements Are a Mystery, Even to Me - T.J. Rodgers, Pajama Media
Economic Hardship Greets The Box in LA - Matt Frei, BBC News
The Big Three Master Fearmongering - Amanda Carpenter, Townhall.com
Big Three Ask for Money – Again - Daniel Ikenson, Cato Institute
The Governator Surrenders on Taxes - Wall Street Journal Editorial
Watch The Market, Not the NBER - IBD Editorial
Will Voters Elect a Bush Again? - Parnes and Mahtesian, The Politico
The Best Golf Story Ever Told by an Economist - Steven Levitt, Freakonomics
Poll of the Day
Andrew Roth
From CNN.com:
A national poll suggests that six in 10 Americans oppose using taxpayer money to help the ailing major U.S. auto companies.
Sixty-one percent of those questioned in a CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey out Wednesday are dead set against the federal government providing billions of dollars in assistance for the automakers, with 36 percent favoring such a bailout.
The poll, conducted Monday and Tuesday, also indicates that a majority of Americans, 53 percent, don't think government assistance for the automakers will help the U.S. economy.
HT: Tim Kane
The Free Market Gets No Respect
Andrew Roth
HT: Mark Perry
Aaaarrrrggggghhhh!
Andrew Roth
Why, why, why, must video content producers insist on not giving bloggers HTML code that will allow us to post their videos on our respective websites? The glory of YouTube is that I can post a video on the Club's blog without forcing my readers to click on a link sending them somewhere else.
I would post exponentially more interviews from CNBC on this blog if only they gave me the code to do so. Unfortunately, I am forced to link to them only once in a while because it's too cumbersome.
The same frustration exists with the BBC. I love their BBC Box project, and I want people to watch this video, but I can't post it on this blog. Aaargh. Sigh.
Franken Gains in Minnesota Senate Race
David Keating
Just when things seemed to be tilting in Sen. Norm Coleman's direction, things snapped back toward challenger Al Franken yesterday.
As reported by the Star-Tribune:
Franken unexpectedly picked up 37 votes due to a combined machine malfunction and human error on Election Day that left 171 Maplewood ballots safe, secure but uncounted until Tuesday's final day of recounting in Ramsey County. Secretary of State Mark Ritchie's office immediately asked county officials to explain what had happened, and U.S. Sen. Norm Coleman's campaign said it sent its own experts to Ramsey County to review the situation and said it was "skeptical about [the ballots'] sudden appearance."
The day's other news -- which Franken's campaign quickly described as a "breakthrough" -- came when Ritchie's office asked local election officials to examine an estimated 12,000 rejected absentee ballots and determine whether their rejection fell under one of four reasons for rejection defined in state law. The Secretary of State's office asked that ballots that were rejected for something other than the four legal reasons be placed into a so-called "fifth category."
The fifth category, Ritchie's office said, could also include absentee ballots rejected for reasons that were "not based on factual information."
Franken's campaign has for quite some time been trying to drag rejected absentee ballots into the recount, so far without success.
In a press conference today, the Franken campaign claimed it now has a lead of 22 votes. The Star-Tribune newspaper reports a 295 vote lead for Coleman. I believe the difference is that the Franken campaign assumes all challenges to votes will be rejected, while the newspaper count does not count challenged ballots in either candidate's total. My guess is that the truth lies somewhere in between.
So what does all this mean?
The race is back in pure toss up status. If additional absentee ballots are counted, then perhaps Franken is a slight favorite.
Venice Under Water
Andrew Roth
Have you ever seen a flood more innocuous? I suppose if any city can handle a flood, though, it's Venice.
Freedom Takes a Back Seat...
Andrew Roth
One emirate in the United Arab Emirates is banning low-income, unskilled workers from getting driver's licenses.
In Toronto, the city council has passed a 5-cent plastic bag tax and has banned bottled water in the City Hall and other public buildings.
Sanford Still Opposes the Bailout
Andrew Roth
Supply-Side Supremo Larry Kudlow recently interviewed South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford to talk about the bailout mania that is sweeping Washington, DC, this year. Great discussion!
Wednesday's Daily News
Andrew Roth
THE DAILY NEWS
Specter in Tough Position on Card Check - Swanson & Bogardus, The Hill
Economists Have Abandoned Principle - Hart & Zingales, WSJ
Why Free Trade Trumps Protectionism - Walter Williams, Washington Times
Larry Summers' Judgment - David Henderson, Forbes.com
The Bailout So Far - Holman Jenkins, Wall Street Journal
Government Sets Us Up for the Next Bust - John Stossel, RCP
Union-Caving Doesn't Merit Taxpayer Help - Mark Perry, IBD
To Rebuild the GOP - William Niskanen, Cato Institute
Jeb: I Am Considering Senate Run - Carol Lee & J. Martin, The Politico
Big 3 Bailout in Neutral - Silla Brush, The Hill
Obama Drops Windfall Profits Tax Idea?
Andrew Roth
Reason's Ron Bailey, who proclaims "hooray for economic sanity", has the scoop.
Poll Question of the Day
Andrew Roth
I like how this question is even being considered. It's a brave, new world, folks.
SurveyUSA Poll #14976 taken in Los Angeles DMA for KABC-TV (Los Angeles): If money was no object, and you had the opportunity, how interested would you be in traveling into space? Very interested? Somewhat interested? Not very interested? Or not at all interested?
Very 34%
Somewhat 17%
Not Very 22%
Not At All 26%
And yes, count me as "very interested."
Wanna Take the Auto Bankruptcy Pledge?
Andrew Roth
Tim Kane has made a pledge: "I will buy a new vehicle from the first American auto company to enter bankruptcy."
Chambliss Wins Georgia Senate Runoff
David Keating
Sen. Saxby Chambliss won his runoff election tonight by a 57% to 43% margin, which ensures that Democrats can not reach 60 Senate seats for the next Congress.
Thank you to all the Club for Growth members who donated to Saxby's runoff campaign through the Club for Growth PAC. Club members donated over $274,000 in under three weeks!
Top Ten Funniest Political Quotes Of 2008
Andrew Roth
Extreme Mortman has the list.
Smelly Tourists
Andrew Roth
The quote of the day comes from Senator Harry Reid during his remarks on the new U.S. Capitol Visitor Center:
"My staff tells me not to say this, but I'm going to say it anyway," said Reid in his remarks. "In the summer because of the heat and high humidity, you could literally smell the tourists coming into the Capitol. It may be descriptive but it's true."
HT: Ben Cunningham
iam.cnbc.com
Andrew Roth
I'm a big fan of CNBC. Not only because I have a background in the financial services industry, but because I can relate to their anchors both politically and economically.
Oh, and because they post interviews like this one on their website.
More Evidence of a Coleman Win in Minnesota Senate Race
David Keating
Despite favoring Al Franken, stat geek Nate Silver of Five Thirty Eight.com crunched the numbers on the recount and finds only one scenario out of 8 where Franken might win, using various assumptions.
Now before you get too excited, this does NOT mean Coleman has a 7 in 8 chance of prevailing. Far from it.
First, all the models necessarily use assumptions, reasonable ones, but still the data still is subject to large errors compared to the Coleman lead.
As Silver notes, "Given the high degrees of uncertainty and ambiguity implied by the models, they would suggest that Franken has roughly speaking somewhere between a 25% chance and a 50% chance of overtaking Coleman depending on which model is selected."
Second, the model makes no assumption about the eventual outcome of the fight over absentee ballots. Silver writes that "If Franken is able to get such ballots counted -- and there is a strong chance that he will -- they will likely be worth a net of somewhere between 25 and 100 votes to him. In this eventuality, the race should probably be considered a toss-up."
Finally, this model does not project what the US Senate might do, as the final judge of elections. On this front, the news is not good as Franken's lawyer has been making a lot of noises about eventually going to the Senate. The Hill newspaper today reported that "Franken attorney Marc Elias made the case to reporters Monday that as many as 1,000 absentee ballots were improperly disqualified and that the Senate or the courts may need to step in to resolve the issue."
Personally, I don't think the Senate would reverse a final decision in Minnesota, though I admit it could attempt to do so. I think a more likely result, should Franken attempt such a maneuver, is that Barack Obama would say he thinks the Senate should respect the final decision of the State of Minnesota. It would avoid a bitter partisan dispute that would detract from his efforts to govern.
A footnote: As Sam Wang points out in his post "Ties, damned ties and statistics," the election was effectively tied. He takes two scenarios where a tie is assumed in his statistical model of running an election with about the same number of voters as the Minnesota Senate race, and crunches the numbers. In both cases, the model with a tie "assumed" would produce a larger margin of victory than any recounted number we've yet seen from Minnesota.
Hannity and ______
Andrew Roth
Apparently, Alan Colmes is leaving the "Hannity and Colmes" show on Fox News. Here's a survey asking people which liberal pundit they'd like to see replace him.
Apply for a Federal Bailout!
Andrew Roth
Want a federal bailout? Via Craig Newmark, please fill out this form.
Saudis Got U.S. Farm Subsidies
Andrew Roth
This will make your blood boil. From the Seattle Times:
A sports-team owner, a financial-firm executive and residents of Hong Kong and Saudi Arabia were among 2,702 millionaire recipients of farm payments from 2003 to 2006 — and it's not even clear they were legitimate farmers, congressional investigators reported Monday.
They probably were ineligible, but the Agriculture Department can't confirm that, since officials never checked their incomes, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) said.
[...]The investigators said the problem will only get worse, because the payments they cited covered only the 2002 farm-bill subsidies. The 2008 farm legislation has provisions that could allow even more people to receive improper payments without effective checks, they said.
HT: Mark Perry
The U.S. Capitol Visitor Center
Andrew Roth
Here's a description of the new U.S. Capitol Visitor Center:
At 580,000 square feet, it’s the largest project in the Capitol’s 215-year history. It was originally scheduled to open almost four years ago, and the $621 million price tag is double the initial estimate.
As Cato's David Boaz sarcastically puts it, "What a perfect introduction to Congress and its activities!"
John Fund Comments on the Huckster
Andrew Roth
From John Fund in today's WSJ Political Diary ($):
Mike Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor who won the Iowa presidential caucuses and became a mini-media sensation earlier this year, has a popular new book out (it's ranked No. 5 on next week's New York Times bestseller list) laying out his philosophy and settling some scores from the campaign.
As for philosophy, Mr. Huckabee was clearly stung by attacks on him as being insufficiently conservative during his ten years running the Arkansas state government from 1996 to 2006. He declares he was the genuine conservative in this year's presidential race and warns about coming economic hard times. He bitterly recalls "getting laughed at by the Wall Street Journal and pilloried by the National Review. They were just dicin' and slicin' me for not following the company line."
Mr. Huckabee thinks the "company line" is a combination of rigid fiscal conservatism and a refusal to use government to help people in times of distress. His book includes a chapter called "Faux-Cons: Worse than Liberalism" In it, he says the "real threat" to the Republican Party is a hidden "libertarianism masked as conservatism....[I]t threatens to not only split the Republican Party, but render it as irrelevant as the Whig Party."
Of course, Mr. Huckabee ignores exit polls from both the 2006 and 2008 elections that show many Republicans stayed home because the party had strayed from its fiscally conservative roots.
He also neglects to mention that the great hero of Republicans, Ronald Reagan, explicitly called for all wings of the Republican Party to stay united and raise "a banner of bold colors, rather than pale pastels." In a famous interview with Reason magazine, the Gipper noted: "If you analyze it I believe the very heart and soul of conservatism is libertarianism....The basis of conservatism is a desire for less government interference or less centralized authority or more individual freedom and this is a pretty general description also of what libertarianism is. . . . I think that libertarianism and conservatism are traveling the same path."
Mr. Huckabee takes other shots in his book, including one that dismisses a Mitt Romney proposal to encourage more investment in the stock market as a Marie Antoinette approach to the economy: "Let them eat stocks!"
In interviews promoting his book, Mr. Huckabee also admits to some puzzlement about the selection of Sarah Palin as John McCain's running-mate, a job he thought himself in line for. "She's wonderful, but the only difference was she looks better in stilettos than I do, and she has better hair," he told the New Yorker magazine. "It wasn't so much a gender issue, but it was like they suddenly decided that everything they disliked about me was O.K....She was given a pass by some of the very people who said I wasn't prepared."
Perhaps one reason why Mr. Huckabee's critics weren't enthusiastic about him joining the GOP ticket was his attitude. Rather than attack free-market groups like the Club for Growth as "the Club for Greed," Mrs. Palin assembled a broad coalition to win the Alaska governor's race in 2008 and maintained warm relations with both free-marketers and social conservatives. That's a page from the Reagan playbook that Mr. Huckabee seems not to have mastered, and indeed seems intent on ripping up.
« Older Content
| #
