Illinois Primary Election Results

Mr. Andrew Roth - February 03rd, 2010

The Chicago Tribune has all the results and numbers.

Some highlights: Mark Kirk is the GOP nominee in the Senate race to replace Roland Burris.  Businessman Robert Dold won the GOP primary in IL-10, the district that Kirk is giving up.  And Randy Hultgren beat out Ethan Hastert in IL-14.  He’ll go up against Democrat incumbent Bill Foster in November.

Republican Tsunami — Gain 190 Seats

David Keating - January 28th, 2010

Given Scott Brown’s huge victory in the Massachusetts Senate special election race, I wondered what would happen if all Republican candidates for US Representative did as well this November.

The answer is that Republicans would gain 190 seats.  Wow!  That would give them 357 seats to 78 for the Democrats.  In case you’re wondering, Nancy Pelosi would still be among the 78 survivors.

Here is how I made the calculation.  The Cook Report calculates a Partisan Voting Index.  I simply compared how much Brown outperformed the index in Massachusetts and then applied the same level of outperformance for all Republicans in all districts in the US.

Now I’m not saying this could happen, it is virtually impossible.  There is no chance that it could unless the Democrats commit an even higher level of political malpractice.

But it does mean that a lot of upsets in "safe" Democratic seats are certainly possible this fall.

If it happened, all of Connecticut would go from blue to red.  In fact nearly all of New England would go red too, except for just two Massachusetts seats.  (Yes, Vermont would go red.)

And it also shows the incredibly strong message that Massachusetts voters sent to Washington.  The question is, will the Democratic leadership listen?

Tea Party Beats GOP on 3-Way Generic Ballot

Mr. Andrew Roth - December 07th, 2009

This poll is generating a lot of buzz online.  The numbers are the unaffiliated voters (the so-called swing voters) is really eye-popping.  From Rasmussen Reports:

In a three-way Generic Ballot test, the latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds Democrats attracting 36% of the vote. The Tea Party candidate picks up 23%, and Republicans finish third at 18%. Another 22% are undecided.

Among voters not affiliated with either major party, the Tea Party comes out on top. Thirty-three percent (33%) prefer the Tea Party candidate, and 30% are undecided. Twenty-five percent (25%) would vote for a Democrat, and just 12% prefer the GOP.

[...]For this survey, the respondents were asked to assume that the Tea Party movement organized as a new political party. In practical terms, it is unlikely that a true third-party option would perform as well as the polling data indicates.

Rubio for Senate group

Mr. Andrew Roth - November 18th, 2009

Club member Kevin Allen just created this Rubio for Senate group on the Club’s new website. 

CQ: "How a Committee Post Morphs Into Cash Clout"

Mr. Andrew Roth - November 17th, 2009