Charlie Cook today updated his race ratings in 16 House races, meaning I have another update for the Top 150 House Democratic seats most at risk.

The biggest news is that the number of highly vulnerable seats goes up by two!  For the first time ever in my tracking, there are now 102 Democratic seats that can be classified as highly vulnerable, meaning no better than "lean Democratic."

In 14 of the 16 rating changes, the races went toward Republicans.  He put four more Democrats in toss-up status and put two others back in the safe column.  That means my four prognosticators now show 120 Democratic House seats in play, still an amazing number, but down two from last week.  (In play means that at least one of the four of the prognosticators rates the race as other than solidly Democratic.) 

Here are the current estimates by category:

    * 59 seats are very slightly to safely Republican (unchanged from Friday).
    * 21 are toss ups (up 2).
    * 22 are leaning Democratic (unchanged).

To provide more detail, 32 (up two from Friday) seats are lean to solidly Republican.  Another 27 are toss-up/tilt Republican (down 2).  20 are pure toss-up (up 4).  Only 1 is toss-up/tilt Democrat (down 2).

Another 18 seats (down 4) are rated likely Democratic by at least one of the four, and in 7 cases two or more of the prognosticators.

I think the Democratic losses will be historic.  The only question in my mind is how far back you have to go to find a larger loss of seats.  I think you will have to go back to 1938, 1922 or 1894, depending on the size of the losses.

There was more news today from the Gallup poll:


Gallup also reports that "the Republicans could gain anywhere from 60 [House] seats on up, with gains well beyond that possible."

Finally, Gallup said this gap is "unprecedented in Gallup polling and could result in the largest Republican margin in House voting in several generations. This means that seat projections have moved into uncharted territory, in which past relationships between the national two-party vote and the number of seats won may not be maintained."

There is a chance, a very real chance, that the polling this year could be wrong, even this Gallup finding. It could underestimate, or overestimate, the possible result.

In fact, Nate Silver, a respected analyst says his model projects that "the spread of potential outcomes is exceptionally wide: its 95 percent confidence interval runs from a 23-seat Republican gain to an 81-seat one."

Silver notes another "X" factor that could push the results to 81 seats or more. "There could also be a group of Republican-leaning voters who are cast aside by these [polling] models: specifically, those who identify themselves with the Tea Party...[or] folks who are dissatisfied with 'politics as usual' and may until recently have been disengaged from electoral politics entirely."

I look at my list and I would bet the odds are a lot higher the losses for Democrats will be 80+ than for them to lose just 23 seats.

Below is the list of the 150 Democratic seats most likely to switch.

Methodology:

I'm tracking four prognosticators who rate House races who I think do the best job -- Cook, Rothenberg, Sabato and CQ. My list of the Democratic seats most likely to switch is based on the most aggressive prognosticator in assessing the race in favor of the Republican.  I have marked down Sabato to toss-up/tilt R if he is the only one at lean Republican.   That's because Sabato forces his final picks out of the toss-up category, so to make his estimates comparable to the other three, I make that adjustment.

In the event of a tie between races, the prognosticator average breaks the tie and if the ranking is still tied, my computer rating of the voting behavior of the seat breaks that tie.  Seats not considered in play by the four prognosticators are ranked based on my computer ranking of the seat's voting behavior and quality of the Republican nominee's campaign.

This analysis does NOT predict how many seats will flip to Republican.  It just lists those that are at least somewhat competitive.  It is likely that only a relative few of the seats listed after ranking #102 will flip to Republican.  Don't expect more than at most a handful, if any, of the races labeled long shots to come in.

This list also does not include Republican seats in play.  There are three that are likely to flip or leaning to the Democrats -- DE-AL (Castle, open), LA-2 (Cao), and IL-10 (Kirk, open).

Rank	2010 Incumbent	District	Nominee	Rating
1	Melancon	LA3	Jeff Landry	Safe R
2	Gordon	TN6	Dianne Black	Safe R
3	Ellsworth	IN8	Larry Bucshon	Likely R
4	Tanner	TN8	Stephen Fincher	Likely R
5	Snyder	AR2	Tim Griffin	Likely R
6	Moore, D.	KS3	Kevin Yoder	Likely R
7	Kilroy	OH15	Steve Stivers	Likely R
8	Markey	CO4	Cory Gardner	Likely R
9	Grayson	FL8	Dan Webster	Likely R
10	Halvorson	IL11	Adam Kinzinger	Likely R
11	Dahlkemper	PA3	Mike Kelly	Likely R
12	Edwards, C.	TX17	Bill Flores	Likely R
13	Massa	NY29	Tom Reed	Likely R
14	Kosmas	FL24	Sandy Adams	Likely R
15	Boyd	FL2	Steve Southerland	Likely R
16	Shea-Porter	NH1	Frank Guinta	Likely R
17	Kratovil	MD1	Andy Harris	Lean R
18	Driehaus	OH1	Steve Chabot	Lean R
19	Kagen	WI8	Reid Ribble	Lean R
20	Teague	NM2	Steve Pearce	Lean R
21	Marshall	GA8	Austin Scott	Lean R
22	Kirkpatrick	AZ1	Paul Gosar	Lean R
23	Nye	VA2	Scott Rigell	Lean R
24	Berry	AR1	Rick Crawford	Lean R
25	Titus	NV3	Joe Heck	Lean R
26	Perriello	VA5	Robert Hurt	Lean R
27	Stupak	MI1	Dan Benishek	Lean R
28	Baird	WA3	Jaime Herrera	Lean R
29	Hodes	NH2	Charlie Bass	Lean R
30	Sestak	PA7	Pat Meehan	Lean R
31	Spratt	SC5	Mick Mulvaney	Lean R
32	Boccieri	OH16	Jim Renacci	Lean R
33	Davis, L.	TN4	Scott DesJarlais	Toss Up/Tilt R
34	Pomeroy	ND1	Richard Berg	Toss Up/Tilt R
35	Herseth Sandlin	SD1	Kristi Noem	Toss Up/Tilt R
36	Foster	IL14	Randy Hultgren	Toss Up/Tilt R
37	Salazar	CO3	Scott Tipton	Toss Up/Tilt R
38	Hall, J.	NY19	Nan Hayworth	Toss Up/Tilt R
39	Mitchell	AZ5	David Schweikert	Toss Up/Tilt R
40	Kanjorski	PA11	Lou Barletta	Toss Up/Tilt R
41	Murphy	NY20	Chris Gibson	Toss Up/Tilt R
42	Murphy, P.	PA8	Michael Fitzpatrick	Toss Up/Tilt R
43	Obey	WI7	Sean Duffy	Toss Up/Tilt R
44	Hill	IN9	Todd Young	Toss Up/Tilt R
45	Carney	PA10	Thomas Marino	Toss Up/Tilt R
46	Mollohan	WV1	David McKinley	Toss Up/Tilt R
47	Schauer	MI7	Tim Walberg	Toss Up/Tilt R
48	Minnick	ID1	Raul Labrador	Toss Up/Tilt R
49	Childers	MS1	Alan Nunnelee	Toss Up/Tilt R
50	Adler	NJ3	Jon Runyan	Toss Up/Tilt R
51	Hare	IL17	Bobby Schilling	Toss Up/Tilt R
52	Space	OH18	Bob Gibbs	Toss Up/Tilt R
53	McNerney	CA11	David Harmer	Toss Up/Tilt R
54	Kissell	NC8	Harold Johnson	Toss Up/Tilt R
55	Rodriguez, C.	TX23	Quico Canseco	Toss Up/Tilt R
56	Klein	FL22	Allen West	Toss Up/Tilt R
57	Bishop, S.	GA2	Mike Keown	Toss Up/Tilt R
58	Bright	AL2	Martha Roby	Toss Up/Tilt R
59	Owens	NY23	Matt Doheny	Toss Up/Tilt R
60	Taylor	MS4	Steven Palazzo	Toss Up
61	Arcuri	NY24	Richard Hanna	Toss Up
62	Heinrich	NM1	Johnathan L. Barela	Toss Up
63	Schrader	OR5	Scott Bruun	Toss Up
64	Delahunt	MA10	Jeff Perry	Toss Up
65	Skelton	MO4	Vicky Hartzler	Toss Up
66	Giffords	AZ8	Jesse Kelly	Toss Up
67	Boucher	VA9	Morgan Griffith	Toss Up
68	Donnelly	IN2	Jackie Walorski Swihart	Toss Up
69	Connolly	VA11	Keith Fimian	Toss Up
70	Wilson, C.	OH6	Bill Johnson	Toss Up
71	Bishop	NY1	Randy Altschuler	Toss Up
72	Critz	PA12	Tim Burns	Toss Up
73	Costa	CA20	Andy Vidak	Toss Up
74	Larsen	WA2	John Koster	Toss Up
75	Grijalva	AZ7	Ruth McClung	Toss Up
76	Chandler	KY6	Andy Barr	Toss Up
77	McIntyre	NC7	Ilario Pantano	Toss Up
78	Oberstar	MN8	Chip Cravaack	Toss Up
79	Pingree	ME1	Dean Scontras	Toss Up
80	Etheridge	NC2	Renee Ellmers	Toss Up/Tilt D
81	Peters	MI9	Rocky Raczkowski	Lean D
82	Walz	MN1	Randy Demmer	Lean D
83	Sanchez, Loretta	CA47	Van Tran	Lean D
84	Boswell	IA3	Brad Zaun	Lean D
85	Kind	WI3	Dan Kapanke	Lean D
86	Loebsack	IA2	Marianette Miller-Meeks	Lean D
87	Kennedy, P.	RI1	John Loughlin	Lean D
88	Himes	CT4	Dan Debicella	Lean D
89	Shuler	NC11	Jeff Miller	Lean D
90	McMahon	NY13	Michael Grimm	Lean D
91	Altmire	PA4	Keith Rothfus	Lean D
92	Maffei	NY25	Ann Marie Buerkle	Lean D
93	Murphy, C.	CT5	Sam Caliguri	Lean D
94	Sutton	OH13	Tom Ganley	Lean D
95	Perlmutter	CO7	Ryan Frazier	Lean D
96	Braley	IA1	Benjamin Lange	Lean D
97	Carnahan	MO3	Ed Martin	Lean D
98	Ortiz	TX27	Blake Farenthold	Lean D
99	Hinchey	NY22	George Phillips	Lean D
100	Frank	MA4	Sean Bielat	Lean D
101	Matheson	UT2	Morgan Philpot	Lean D
102	Michaud	ME2	Jason Levesque	Lean D
103	Holden	PA17	Dave Argall	Likely D
104	Yarmuth	KY3	Todd Lally	Likely D
105	Rahall	WV3	Elliot "Spike" Maynard	Likely D
106	Bean	IL8	Joe Walsh	Likely D
107	Cardoza	CA18	Michael Berryhill	Likely D
108	Holt	NJ12	Scott Sipprelle	Likely D
109	Wu	OR1	Rob Cornilles	Likely D
110	Ross	AR4	Beth Anne Rankin	Likely D
111	DeFazio	OR4	Art Robinson	Likely D
112	Tierney	MA6	Bill Hudak	Likely D
113	Cooper	TN5	David Hall	Likely D
114	Lujan	NM3	Thomas E. Mullins	Likely D
115	Kucinich	OH10	Peter Corrigan	Likely D
116	Smith, Adam	WA9	Dick Muri	Likely D
117	Tsongas	MA5	Jon Golnik	Likely D
118	Barrow	GA12	Ray McKinney	Likely D
119	McCarthy, C.	NY4	Fran Becker	Likely D
120	Pallone Jr.	NJ6	Anna Little	Likely D
121	Dicks	WA6	Doug Cloud	Long Shot
122	Peterson	MN7	Lee Byberg	Long Shot
123	Boren	OK2	Charles Thompson	Long Shot
124	Cuellar	TX28	Bryan Underwood	Long Shot
125	Miller, B.	NC13	Bill Randall	Long Shot
126	Dingell	MI15	Rob Steele	Long Shot
127	Price, D.	NC4	William "BJ" Lawson	Long Shot
128	Doggett	TX25	Donna Campbell	Long Shot
129	Courtney	CT2	Janet Peckinpaugh	Long Shot
130	Filner	CA51	Nick Popaditch	Long Shot
131	Kaptur	OH9	Rich Lott	Long Shot
132	Weiner	NY9	Bob Turner	Long Shot
133	Capps	CA23	Tom Watson	Long Shot
134	Thompson, B.	MS2	Bill Marcy	Long Shot
135	Schwartz	PA13	Carson Dee Adcock	Long Shot
136	Polis	CO2	Stephen Bailey	Long Shot
137	Cleaver	MO5	Jacob Turk	Long Shot
138	Hinojosa	TX15	Eddie Zamora	Long Shot
139	Inslee	WA1	James Watkins	Long Shot
140	Israel	NY2	John Gomez	Long Shot
141	Castor	FL11	Mike Prendergast	Long Shot
142	Costello	IL12	Teri Davis Newman	Long Shot
143	Carson	IN7	Marvin Scott	Long Shot
144	Richardson	CA37	Star Parker	Long Shot
145	Schakowsky	IL9	Joel Pollak	Long Shot
146	Kildee	MI5	John Kupiec	Long Shot
147	Tonko	NY21	Theodore Danz	Long Shot
148	Higgins	NY27	Lenny Roberto	Long Shot
149	Gonzalez	TX20	Clayton Trotter	Long Shot
150	Sarbanes	MD3	Jim Wilhelm	Long Shot

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