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Topic: Elections

Looking Ahead to 2012 with Art Laffer

Posted on Nov. 03, 10 | 12:01 PM by Andrew Roth | Topic: Elections
 
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Toomey Wins!

Posted on Nov. 03, 10 | 09:00 AM by Andrew Roth | Topic: Elections
 
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House Race Election Night Tracking

Posted on Nov. 02, 10 | 05:51 PM by David Keating | Topic: Elections
Perhaps the easiest way to quickly understand the election landscape in the House is the chart below.

Here I've sorted the top 150 House Democratic seats most likely to flip.  If it is a big night, you will see a lot of Red stripes on this chart, which signifies a Republican pick-up.  (Blue stripes signify a retention by the Democrats.)

You will know the night holds a lot of potential for a big wave if you see a fair number of Red stripes early on in districts way down the chart, especially from races ranked starting at #80, which is where Democrats are favored.

If you see  a lot of Red stripes in the toss-category, that too is another sign of a big night for Republicans.

To provide more detail, 32 seats are lean to solidly Republican.  Another 27 are toss-up/tilt Republican.  20 are pure toss-up.  Only 1 is toss-up/tilt Democrat.  Another 18 seats (down 4) are rated likely Democratic by at least one of the four, and in 8 cases two or more of the prognosticators.

The chart makes it easy to see in a glance how things are going.

More info on the methodology can be found in the last update before the election.

UPDATE:  Many of these races are not official, but one candidate has a lead, which I note in very light red or blue.  Some are literally too close to call or votes are still being tallied.

Rank 2010 Incumbent District Nominee Rating Winner
1 Melancon LA3 Jeff Landry Safe R --------
2 Gordon TN6 Dianne Black Safe R --------
3 Ellsworth IN8 Larry Bucshon Likely R --------
4 Tanner TN8 Stephen Fincher Likely R --------
5 Snyder AR2 Tim Griffin Likely R --------
6 Moore, D. KS3 Kevin Yoder Likely R --------
7 Kilroy OH15 Steve Stivers Likely R --------
8 Markey CO4 Cory Gardner Likely R --------
9 Grayson FL8 Dan Webster Likely R --------
10 Halvorson IL11 Adam Kinzinger Likely R --------
11 Dahlkemper PA3 Mike Kelly Likely R --------
12 Edwards, C. TX17 Bill Flores Likely R --------
13 Massa NY29 Tom Reed Likely R --------
14 Kosmas FL24 Sandy Adams Likely R --------
15 Boyd FL2 Steve Southerland Likely R --------
16 Shea-Porter NH1 Frank Guinta Likely R --------
17 Kratovil MD1 Andy Harris Lean R --------
18 Driehaus OH1 Steve Chabot Lean R --------
19 Kagen WI8 Reid Ribble Lean R --------
20 Teague NM2 Steve Pearce Lean R --------
21 Marshall GA8 Austin Scott Lean R --------
22 Kirkpatrick AZ1 Paul Gosar Lean R --------
23 Nye VA2 Scott Rigell Lean R --------
24 Berry AR1 Rick Crawford Lean R --------
25 Titus NV3 Joe Heck Lean R --------
26 Perriello VA5 Robert Hurt Lean R --------
27 Stupak MI1 Dan Benishek Lean R --------
28 Baird WA3 Jaime Herrera Lean R --------
29 Hodes NH2 Charlie Bass Lean R --------
30 Sestak PA7 Pat Meehan Lean R --------
31 Spratt SC5 Mick Mulvaney Lean R --------
32 Boccieri OH16 Jim Renacci Lean R --------
33 Davis, L. TN4 Scott DesJarlais Toss Up/Tilt R --------
34 Pomeroy ND1 Richard Berg Toss Up/Tilt R --------
35 Herseth Sandlin SD1 Kristi Noem Toss Up/Tilt R --------
36 Foster IL14 Randy Hultgren Toss Up/Tilt R --------
37 Salazar CO3 Scott Tipton Toss Up/Tilt R --------
38 Hall, J. NY19 Nan Hayworth Toss Up/Tilt R --------
39 Mitchell AZ5 David Schweikert Toss Up/Tilt R --------
40 Kanjorski PA11 Lou Barletta Toss Up/Tilt R --------
41 Murphy NY20 Chris Gibson Toss Up/Tilt R --------
42 Murphy, P. PA8 Michael Fitzpatrick Toss Up/Tilt R --------
43 Obey WI7 Sean Duffy Toss Up/Tilt R --------
44 Hill IN9 Todd Young Toss Up/Tilt R --------
45 Carney PA10 Thomas Marino Toss Up/Tilt R --------
46 Mollohan WV1 David McKinley Toss Up/Tilt R --------
47 Schauer MI7 Tim Walberg Toss Up/Tilt R --------
48 Minnick ID1 Raul Labrador Toss Up/Tilt R --------
49 Childers MS1 Alan Nunnelee Toss Up/Tilt R --------
50 Adler NJ3 Jon Runyan Toss Up/Tilt R --------
51 Hare IL17 Bobby Schilling Toss Up/Tilt R --------
52 Space OH18 Bob Gibbs Toss Up/Tilt R --------
53 McNerney CA11 David Harmer Toss Up/Tilt R --------
54 Kissell NC8 Harold Johnson Toss Up/Tilt R --------
55 Rodriguez, C. TX23 Quico Canseco Toss Up/Tilt R --------
56 Klein FL22 Allen West Toss Up/Tilt R --------
57 Bishop, S. GA2 Mike Keown Toss Up/Tilt R --------
58 Bright AL2 Martha Roby Toss Up/Tilt R --------
59 Owens NY23 Matt Doheny Toss Up/Tilt R --------
60 Taylor MS4 Steven Palazzo Toss Up --------
61 Arcuri NY24 Richard Hanna Toss Up --------
62 Heinrich NM1 Johnathan L. Barela Toss Up --------
63 Schrader OR5 Scott Bruun Toss Up --------
64 Delahunt MA10 Jeff Perry Toss Up --------
65 Skelton MO4 Vicky Hartzler Toss Up --------
66 Giffords AZ8 Jesse Kelly Toss Up --------
67 Boucher VA9 Morgan Griffith Toss Up --------
68 Donnelly IN2 Jackie Walorski Swihart Toss Up --------
69 Connolly VA11 Keith Fimian Toss Up --------
70 Wilson, C. OH6 Bill Johnson Toss Up --------
71 Bishop NY1 Randy Altschuler Toss Up --------
72 Critz PA12 Tim Burns Toss Up --------
73 Costa CA20 Andy Vidak Toss Up --------
74 Larsen WA2 John Koster Toss Up --------
75 Grijalva AZ7 Ruth McClung Toss Up --------
76 Chandler KY6 Andy Barr Toss Up --------
77 McIntyre NC7 Ilario Pantano Toss Up --------
78 Pingree ME1 Dean Scontras Toss Up --------
79 Oberstar MN8 Chip Cravaack Toss Up --------
80 Etheridge NC2 Renee Ellmers Toss Up/Tilt D --------
81 Peters MI9 Rocky Raczkowski Lean D --------
82 Walz MN1 Randy Demmer Lean D --------
83 Sanchez, Loretta CA47 Van Tran Lean D --------
84 Boswell IA3 Brad Zaun Lean D --------
85 Kind WI3 Dan Kapanke Lean D --------
86 Loebsack IA2 Marianette Miller-Meeks Lean D --------
87 Kennedy, P. RI1 John Loughlin Lean D --------
88 Himes CT4 Dan Debicella Lean D --------
89 Shuler NC11 Jeff Miller Lean D --------
90 McMahon NY13 Michael Grimm Lean D --------
91 Altmire PA4 Keith Rothfus Lean D --------
92 Maffei NY25 Ann Marie Buerkle Lean D --------
93 Murphy, C. CT5 Sam Caliguri Lean D --------
94 Sutton OH13 Tom Ganley Lean D --------
95 Perlmutter CO7 Ryan Frazier Lean D --------
96 Braley IA1 Benjamin Lange Lean D --------
97 Carnahan MO3 Ed Martin Lean D --------
98 Ortiz TX27 Blake Farenthold Lean D --------
99 Michaud ME2 Jason Levesque Lean D --------
100 Hinchey NY22 George Phillips Lean D --------
101 Frank MA4 Sean Bielat Lean D --------
102 Matheson UT2 Morgan Philpot Lean D --------
103 Holden PA17 Dave Argall Likely D --------
104 Yarmuth KY3 Todd Lally Likely D --------
105 Rahall WV3 Elliot "Spike" Maynard Likely D --------
106 Bean IL8 Joe Walsh Likely D --------
107 Cardoza CA18 Michael Berryhill Likely D --------
108 Holt NJ12 Scott Sipprelle Likely D --------
109 Wu OR1 Rob Cornilles Likely D --------
110 Ross AR4 Beth Anne Rankin Likely D --------
111 DeFazio OR4 Art Robinson Likely D --------
112 Tierney MA6 Bill Hudak Likely D --------
113 Cooper TN5 David Hall Likely D --------
114 Lujan NM3 Thomas E. Mullins Likely D --------
115 Kucinich OH10 Peter Corrigan Likely D --------
116 Smith, Adam WA9 Dick Muri Likely D --------
117 Tsongas MA5 Jon Golnik Likely D --------
118 Barrow GA12 Ray McKinney Likely D --------
119 McCarthy, C. NY4 Fran Becker Likely D --------
120 Pallone Jr. NJ6 Anna Little Likely D --------
121 Dicks WA6 Doug Cloud Long Shot --------
122 Peterson MN7 Lee Byberg Long Shot --------
123 Boren OK2 Charles Thompson Long Shot --------
124 Cuellar TX28 Bryan Underwood Long Shot --------
125 Miller, B. NC13 Bill Randall Long Shot --------
126 Dingell MI15 Rob Steele Long Shot --------
127 Price, D. NC4 William "BJ" Lawson Long Shot --------
128 Doggett TX25 Donna Campbell Long Shot --------
129 Courtney CT2 Janet Peckinpaugh Long Shot --------
130 Filner CA51 Nick Popaditch Long Shot --------
131 Kaptur OH9 Rich Lott Long Shot --------
132 Weiner NY9 Bob Turner Long Shot --------
133 Capps CA23 Tom Watson Long Shot --------
134 Thompson, B. MS2 Bill Marcy Long Shot --------
135 Schwartz PA13 Carson Dee Adcock Long Shot --------
136 Polis CO2 Stephen Bailey Long Shot --------
137 Cleaver MO5 Jacob Turk Long Shot --------
138 Hinojosa TX15 Eddie Zamora Long Shot --------
139 Inslee WA1 James Watkins Long Shot --------
140 Israel NY2 John Gomez Long Shot --------
141 Castor FL11 Mike Prendergast Long Shot --------
142 Costello IL12 Teri Davis Newman Long Shot --------
143 Carson IN7 Marvin Scott Long Shot --------
144 Richardson CA37 Star Parker Long Shot --------
145 Schakowsky IL9 Joel Pollak Long Shot --------
146 Kildee MI5 John Kupiec Long Shot --------
147 Tonko NY21 Theodore Danz Long Shot --------
148 Higgins NY27 Lenny Roberto Long Shot --------
149 Gonzalez TX20 Clayton Trotter Long Shot --------
150 Sarbanes MD3 Jim Wilhelm Long Shot --------
           
Permalink: http://www.clubforgrowth.org/perm/?postID=14397
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102 Democratic House Seats Now Highly Vulnerable

Posted on Nov. 01, 10 | 04:57 PM by David Keating | Topic: Elections
Charlie Cook today updated his race ratings in 16 House races, meaning I have another update for the Top 150 House Democratic seats most at risk.

The biggest news is that the number of highly vulnerable seats goes up by two!  For the first time ever in my tracking, there are now 102 Democratic seats that can be classified as highly vulnerable, meaning no better than "lean Democratic."

In 14 of the 16 rating changes, the races went toward Republicans.  He put four more Democrats in toss-up status and put two others back in the safe column.  That means my four prognosticators now show 120 Democratic House seats in play, still an amazing number, but down two from last week.  (In play means that at least one of the four of the prognosticators rates the race as other than solidly Democratic.) 

Here are the current estimates by category:

    * 59 seats are very slightly to safely Republican (unchanged from Friday).
    * 21 are toss ups (up 2).
    * 22 are leaning Democratic (unchanged).

To provide more detail, 32 (up two from Friday) seats are lean to solidly Republican.  Another 27 are toss-up/tilt Republican (down 2).  20 are pure toss-up (up 4).  Only 1 is toss-up/tilt Democrat (down 2).

Another 18 seats (down 4) are rated likely Democratic by at least one of the four, and in 7 cases two or more of the prognosticators.

I think the Democratic losses will be historic.  The only question in my mind is how far back you have to go to find a larger loss of seats.  I think you will have to go back to 1938, 1922 or 1894, depending on the size of the losses.

There was more news today from the Gallup poll:

Gallup's analysis of several indicators of voter turnout from the weekend poll suggests turnout will be slightly higher than in recent years, at 45%. This would give the Republicans a 55% to 40% lead on the generic ballot, with 5% undecided.

Gallup also reports that "the Republicans could gain anywhere from 60 [House] seats on up, with gains well beyond that possible."

Finally, Gallup said this gap is "unprecedented in Gallup polling and could result in the largest Republican margin in House voting in several generations. This means that seat projections have moved into uncharted territory, in which past relationships between the national two-party vote and the number of seats won may not be maintained."

There is a chance, a very real chance, that the polling this year could be wrong, even this Gallup finding. It could underestimate, or overestimate, the possible result.

In fact, Nate Silver, a respected analyst says his model projects that "the spread of potential outcomes is exceptionally wide: its 95 percent confidence interval runs from a 23-seat Republican gain to an 81-seat one."

Silver notes another "X" factor that could push the results to 81 seats or more. "There could also be a group of Republican-leaning voters who are cast aside by these [polling] models: specifically, those who identify themselves with the Tea Party...[or] folks who are dissatisfied with 'politics as usual' and may until recently have been disengaged from electoral politics entirely."

I look at my list and I would bet the odds are a lot higher the losses for Democrats will be 80+ than for them to lose just 23 seats.

Below is the list of the 150 Democratic seats most likely to switch.

Methodology:

I'm tracking four prognosticators who rate House races who I think do the best job -- Cook, Rothenberg, Sabato and CQ. My list of the Democratic seats most likely to switch is based on the most aggressive prognosticator in assessing the race in favor of the Republican.  I have marked down Sabato to toss-up/tilt R if he is the only one at lean Republican.   That's because Sabato forces his final picks out of the toss-up category, so to make his estimates comparable to the other three, I make that adjustment.

In the event of a tie between races, the prognosticator average breaks the tie and if the ranking is still tied, my computer rating of the voting behavior of the seat breaks that tie.  Seats not considered in play by the four prognosticators are ranked based on my computer ranking of the seat's voting behavior and quality of the Republican nominee's campaign.

This analysis does NOT predict how many seats will flip to Republican.  It just lists those that are at least somewhat competitive.  It is likely that only a relative few of the seats listed after ranking #102 will flip to Republican.  Don't expect more than at most a handful, if any, of the races labeled long shots to come in.

This list also does not include Republican seats in play.  There are three that are likely to flip or leaning to the Democrats -- DE-AL (Castle, open), LA-2 (Cao), and IL-10 (Kirk, open).

Rank 2010 Incumbent District Nominee Rating
1 Melancon LA3 Jeff Landry Safe R
2 Gordon TN6 Dianne Black Safe R
3 Ellsworth IN8 Larry Bucshon Likely R
4 Tanner TN8 Stephen Fincher Likely R
5 Snyder AR2 Tim Griffin Likely R
6 Moore, D. KS3 Kevin Yoder Likely R
7 Kilroy OH15 Steve Stivers Likely R
8 Markey CO4 Cory Gardner Likely R
9 Grayson FL8 Dan Webster Likely R
10 Halvorson IL11 Adam Kinzinger Likely R
11 Dahlkemper PA3 Mike Kelly Likely R
12 Edwards, C. TX17 Bill Flores Likely R
13 Massa NY29 Tom Reed Likely R
14 Kosmas FL24 Sandy Adams Likely R
15 Boyd FL2 Steve Southerland Likely R
16 Shea-Porter NH1 Frank Guinta Likely R
17 Kratovil MD1 Andy Harris Lean R
18 Driehaus OH1 Steve Chabot Lean R
19 Kagen WI8 Reid Ribble Lean R
20 Teague NM2 Steve Pearce Lean R
21 Marshall GA8 Austin Scott Lean R
22 Kirkpatrick AZ1 Paul Gosar Lean R
23 Nye VA2 Scott Rigell Lean R
24 Berry AR1 Rick Crawford Lean R
25 Titus NV3 Joe Heck Lean R
26 Perriello VA5 Robert Hurt Lean R
27 Stupak MI1 Dan Benishek Lean R
28 Baird WA3 Jaime Herrera Lean R
29 Hodes NH2 Charlie Bass Lean R
30 Sestak PA7 Pat Meehan Lean R
31 Spratt SC5 Mick Mulvaney Lean R
32 Boccieri OH16 Jim Renacci Lean R
33 Davis, L. TN4 Scott DesJarlais Toss Up/Tilt R
34 Pomeroy ND1 Richard Berg Toss Up/Tilt R
35 Herseth Sandlin SD1 Kristi Noem Toss Up/Tilt R
36 Foster IL14 Randy Hultgren Toss Up/Tilt R
37 Salazar CO3 Scott Tipton Toss Up/Tilt R
38 Hall, J. NY19 Nan Hayworth Toss Up/Tilt R
39 Mitchell AZ5 David Schweikert Toss Up/Tilt R
40 Kanjorski PA11 Lou Barletta Toss Up/Tilt R
41 Murphy NY20 Chris Gibson Toss Up/Tilt R
42 Murphy, P. PA8 Michael Fitzpatrick Toss Up/Tilt R
43 Obey WI7 Sean Duffy Toss Up/Tilt R
44 Hill IN9 Todd Young Toss Up/Tilt R
45 Carney PA10 Thomas Marino Toss Up/Tilt R
46 Mollohan WV1 David McKinley Toss Up/Tilt R
47 Schauer MI7 Tim Walberg Toss Up/Tilt R
48 Minnick ID1 Raul Labrador Toss Up/Tilt R
49 Childers MS1 Alan Nunnelee Toss Up/Tilt R
50 Adler NJ3 Jon Runyan Toss Up/Tilt R
51 Hare IL17 Bobby Schilling Toss Up/Tilt R
52 Space OH18 Bob Gibbs Toss Up/Tilt R
53 McNerney CA11 David Harmer Toss Up/Tilt R
54 Kissell NC8 Harold Johnson Toss Up/Tilt R
55 Rodriguez, C. TX23 Quico Canseco Toss Up/Tilt R
56 Klein FL22 Allen West Toss Up/Tilt R
57 Bishop, S. GA2 Mike Keown Toss Up/Tilt R
58 Bright AL2 Martha Roby Toss Up/Tilt R
59 Owens NY23 Matt Doheny Toss Up/Tilt R
60 Taylor MS4 Steven Palazzo Toss Up
61 Arcuri NY24 Richard Hanna Toss Up
62 Heinrich NM1 Johnathan L. Barela Toss Up
63 Schrader OR5 Scott Bruun Toss Up
64 Delahunt MA10 Jeff Perry Toss Up
65 Skelton MO4 Vicky Hartzler Toss Up
66 Giffords AZ8 Jesse Kelly Toss Up
67 Boucher VA9 Morgan Griffith Toss Up
68 Donnelly IN2 Jackie Walorski Swihart Toss Up
69 Connolly VA11 Keith Fimian Toss Up
70 Wilson, C. OH6 Bill Johnson Toss Up
71 Bishop NY1 Randy Altschuler Toss Up
72 Critz PA12 Tim Burns Toss Up
73 Costa CA20 Andy Vidak Toss Up
74 Larsen WA2 John Koster Toss Up
75 Grijalva AZ7 Ruth McClung Toss Up
76 Chandler KY6 Andy Barr Toss Up
77 McIntyre NC7 Ilario Pantano Toss Up
78 Oberstar MN8 Chip Cravaack Toss Up
79 Pingree ME1 Dean Scontras Toss Up
80 Etheridge NC2 Renee Ellmers Toss Up/Tilt D
81 Peters MI9 Rocky Raczkowski Lean D
82 Walz MN1 Randy Demmer Lean D
83 Sanchez, Loretta CA47 Van Tran Lean D
84 Boswell IA3 Brad Zaun Lean D
85 Kind WI3 Dan Kapanke Lean D
86 Loebsack IA2 Marianette Miller-Meeks Lean D
87 Kennedy, P. RI1 John Loughlin Lean D
88 Himes CT4 Dan Debicella Lean D
89 Shuler NC11 Jeff Miller Lean D
90 McMahon NY13 Michael Grimm Lean D
91 Altmire PA4 Keith Rothfus Lean D
92 Maffei NY25 Ann Marie Buerkle Lean D
93 Murphy, C. CT5 Sam Caliguri Lean D
94 Sutton OH13 Tom Ganley Lean D
95 Perlmutter CO7 Ryan Frazier Lean D
96 Braley IA1 Benjamin Lange Lean D
97 Carnahan MO3 Ed Martin Lean D
98 Ortiz TX27 Blake Farenthold Lean D
99 Hinchey NY22 George Phillips Lean D
100 Frank MA4 Sean Bielat Lean D
101 Matheson UT2 Morgan Philpot Lean D
102 Michaud ME2 Jason Levesque Lean D
103 Holden PA17 Dave Argall Likely D
104 Yarmuth KY3 Todd Lally Likely D
105 Rahall WV3 Elliot "Spike" Maynard Likely D
106 Bean IL8 Joe Walsh Likely D
107 Cardoza CA18 Michael Berryhill Likely D
108 Holt NJ12 Scott Sipprelle Likely D
109 Wu OR1 Rob Cornilles Likely D
110 Ross AR4 Beth Anne Rankin Likely D
111 DeFazio OR4 Art Robinson Likely D
112 Tierney MA6 Bill Hudak Likely D
113 Cooper TN5 David Hall Likely D
114 Lujan NM3 Thomas E. Mullins Likely D
115 Kucinich OH10 Peter Corrigan Likely D
116 Smith, Adam WA9 Dick Muri Likely D
117 Tsongas MA5 Jon Golnik Likely D
118 Barrow GA12 Ray McKinney Likely D
119 McCarthy, C. NY4 Fran Becker Likely D
120 Pallone Jr. NJ6 Anna Little Likely D
121 Dicks WA6 Doug Cloud Long Shot
122 Peterson MN7 Lee Byberg Long Shot
123 Boren OK2 Charles Thompson Long Shot
124 Cuellar TX28 Bryan Underwood Long Shot
125 Miller, B. NC13 Bill Randall Long Shot
126 Dingell MI15 Rob Steele Long Shot
127 Price, D. NC4 William "BJ" Lawson Long Shot
128 Doggett TX25 Donna Campbell Long Shot
129 Courtney CT2 Janet Peckinpaugh Long Shot
130 Filner CA51 Nick Popaditch Long Shot
131 Kaptur OH9 Rich Lott Long Shot
132 Weiner NY9 Bob Turner Long Shot
133 Capps CA23 Tom Watson Long Shot
134 Thompson, B. MS2 Bill Marcy Long Shot
135 Schwartz PA13 Carson Dee Adcock Long Shot
136 Polis CO2 Stephen Bailey Long Shot
137 Cleaver MO5 Jacob Turk Long Shot
138 Hinojosa TX15 Eddie Zamora Long Shot
139 Inslee WA1 James Watkins Long Shot
140 Israel NY2 John Gomez Long Shot
141 Castor FL11 Mike Prendergast Long Shot
142 Costello IL12 Teri Davis Newman Long Shot
143 Carson IN7 Marvin Scott Long Shot
144 Richardson CA37 Star Parker Long Shot
145 Schakowsky IL9 Joel Pollak Long Shot
146 Kildee MI5 John Kupiec Long Shot
147 Tonko NY21 Theodore Danz Long Shot
148 Higgins NY27 Lenny Roberto Long Shot
149 Gonzalez TX20 Clayton Trotter Long Shot
150 Sarbanes MD3 Jim Wilhelm Long Shot
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100 Democratic Seats Now Highly Vulnerable

Posted on Oct. 29, 10 | 04:04 PM by David Keating | Topic: Elections
Here is what I think may be the last update of the Top 150 House Democratic seats most at risk.

Three of the the four prognosticators I'm following issued updates since yesterday and this incorporates the slew of new race ratings.

For the first time ever in my tracking, there are now 100 Democratic seats that can be classified as highly vulnerable.

To recap the rating changes: Sabato moved 38 races toward Republicans and only four against them.  Sabato dumps the toss-up category in his final assessment, as he always does. 

Rothenberg moved 34 seats toward Republicans, and just one against them. 

Cook moved 12 races toward Republicans, and just three against them.

Overall, there are now 122 Democratic seats as in play, meaning that at least one of the four of the prognosticators rates the race as other than solidly Democratic.

I had to change my methodology somewhat due to Sabato's call of each race to one party or another.  His calls would distort comparisons, as others use the toss-up category.  So if he is the only one to rate a race as lean Republican, I put that in my rating as toss-up/tilt Republican.  There already was such a category, but I force Sabato's picks in there too if he is the only one saying lean.

So with that caveat, here are the calls (note that the numbers are not directly comparable to the previous update due to the change in methodology):

    * 59 seats are very slightly to safely Republican (up 20).
    * 19 are toss ups (down 15).
    * 22 are leaning Democratic (down 3).

To provide more detail, 30 seats are lean to solidly Republican.  Another 29 are toss-up/tilt Republican.  16 are pure toss-up.  Only 3 are toss-up/tilt Democrat. 

Another 22 seats are rated likely Democratic by at least one of the four, and in 7 cases two or more of the prognosticators.

I get the feeling that Sabato and Rothenberg think the losses will be far more than they are projecting, but can't bring themselves to say so.  Cook has 22 seats in the Republican column and an astonishing 49 as toss-ups.  Yet he still hedges, saying that "Republicans win more than half of the Toss Ups and a handful of the 27 races in the Lean Democratic column, GOP gains would approach 60 seats."

I think if there is a wave, a lot more than half the toss-ups will flip, which is why I think this list below is a good picture of where things appear to stand.

I think the Democratic losses will be historic.  The only question in my mind is how far back you have to go to find a larger loss of seats.  I think you will have to go back to 1938, 1922 or 1894, depending on the size of the losses.

Below is the list of the 150 Democratic seats most likely to switch. 

Methodology:

I'm tracking four prognosticators who rate House races who I think do the best job -- Cook, Rothenberg, Sabato and CQ. My list of the Democratic seats most likely to switch is based on the most aggressive prognosticator in assessing the race in favor of the Republican.  I have marked down Sabato to toss-up/tilt R if he is the only one at lean Republican. 

In the event of a tie between races, the prognosticator average breaks the tie and if the ranking is still tied, my computer rating of the voting behavior of the seat breaks that tie.  Seats not considered in play by the four prognosticators are ranked based on my computer ranking of the seat's voting behavior and quality of the Republican nominee's campaign.

This analysis does NOT predict how many seats will flip to Republican.  It just lists those that are at least somewhat competitive.  It is likely that only a relative few of the seats listed after ranking #100 will flip to Republican.  Don't expect more than at most a handful, if any, of the races labeled long shots to come in.

This list also does not include Republican seats in play.  There are two that are likely to flip to the Democrats -- DE-AL (Castle) and LA-2 (Cao).


Rank 2010 Incumbent District Nominee Rating
1 Melancon LA3 Jeff Landry Safe R
2 Gordon TN6 Dianne Black Safe R
3 Ellsworth IN8 Larry Bucshon Likely R
4 Tanner TN8 Stephen Fincher Likely R
5 Snyder AR2 Tim Griffin Likely R
6 Moore, D. KS3 Kevin Yoder Likely R
7 Kilroy OH15 Steve Stivers Likely R
8 Markey CO4 Cory Gardner Likely R
9 Halvorson IL11 Adam Kinzinger Likely R
10 Dahlkemper PA3 Mike Kelly Likely R
11 Edwards, C. TX17 Bill Flores Likely R
12 Massa NY29 Tom Reed Likely R
13 Grayson FL8 Dan Webster Likely R
14 Kosmas FL24 Sandy Adams Likely R
15 Boyd FL2 Steve Southerland Likely R
16 Shea-Porter NH1 Frank Guinta Likely R
17 Driehaus OH1 Steve Chabot Lean R
18 Kagen WI8 Reid Ribble Lean R
19 Kratovil MD1 Andy Harris Lean R
20 Marshall GA8 Austin Scott Lean R
21 Kirkpatrick AZ1 Paul Gosar Lean R
22 Nye VA2 Scott Rigell Lean R
23 Perriello VA5 Robert Hurt Lean R
24 Stupak MI1 Dan Benishek Lean R
25 Baird WA3 Jaime Herrera Lean R
26 Hodes NH2 Charlie Bass Lean R
27 Sestak PA7 Pat Meehan Lean R
28 Teague NM2 Steve Pearce Lean R
29 Spratt SC5 Mick Mulvaney Lean R
30 Boccieri OH16 Jim Renacci Lean R
31 Davis, L. TN4 Scott DesJarlais Toss Up/Tilt R
32 Berry AR1 Rick Crawford Toss Up/Tilt R
33 Pomeroy ND1 Richard Berg Toss Up/Tilt R
34 Titus NV3 Joe Heck Toss Up/Tilt R
35 Herseth Sandlin SD1 Kristi Noem Toss Up/Tilt R
36 Foster IL14 Randy Hultgren Toss Up/Tilt R
37 Salazar CO3 Scott Tipton Toss Up/Tilt R
38 Hall, J. NY19 Nan Hayworth Toss Up/Tilt R
39 Mitchell AZ5 David Schweikert Toss Up/Tilt R
40 Kanjorski PA11 Lou Barletta Toss Up/Tilt R
41 Murphy NY20 Chris Gibson Toss Up/Tilt R
42 Murphy, P. PA8 Michael Fitzpatrick Toss Up/Tilt R
43 Obey WI7 Sean Duffy Toss Up/Tilt R
44 Hill IN9 Todd Young Toss Up/Tilt R
45 Carney PA10 Thomas Marino Toss Up/Tilt R
46 Mollohan WV1 David McKinley Toss Up/Tilt R
47 Schauer MI7 Tim Walberg Toss Up/Tilt R
48 Minnick ID1 Raul Labrador Toss Up/Tilt R
49 Childers MS1 Alan Nunnelee Toss Up/Tilt R
50 Adler NJ3 Jon Runyan Toss Up/Tilt R
51 Hare IL17 Bobby Schilling Toss Up/Tilt R
52 Space OH18 Bob Gibbs Toss Up/Tilt R
53 McNerney CA11 David Harmer Toss Up/Tilt R
54 Kissell NC8 Harold Johnson Toss Up/Tilt R
55 Rodriguez, C. TX23 Quico Canseco Toss Up/Tilt R
56 Klein FL22 Allen West Toss Up/Tilt R
57 Bishop, S. GA2 Mike Keown Toss Up/Tilt R
58 Bright AL2 Martha Roby Toss Up/Tilt R
59 Owens NY23 Matt Doheny Toss Up/Tilt R
60 Taylor MS4 Steven Palazzo Toss Up
61 Arcuri NY24 Richard Hanna Toss Up
62 Heinrich NM1 Johnathan L. Barela Toss Up
63 Schrader OR5 Scott Bruun Toss Up
64 Delahunt MA10 Jeff Perry Toss Up
65 Skelton MO4 Vicky Hartzler Toss Up
66 Giffords AZ8 Jesse Kelly Toss Up
67 Donnelly IN2 Jackie Walorski Swihart Toss Up
68 Connolly VA11 Keith Fimian Toss Up
69 Wilson, C. OH6 Bill Johnson Toss Up
70 Bishop NY1 Randy Altschuler Toss Up
71 Critz PA12 Tim Burns Toss Up
72 Costa CA20 Andy Vidak Toss Up
73 Larsen WA2 John Koster Toss Up
74 Grijalva AZ7 Ruth McClung Toss Up
75 Chandler KY6 Andy Barr Toss Up
76 Boucher VA9 Morgan Griffith Toss Up/Tilt D
77 McIntyre NC7 Ilario Pantano Toss Up/Tilt D
78 Etheridge NC2 Renee Ellmers Toss Up/Tilt D
79 Peters MI9 Rocky Raczkowski Lean D
80 Walz MN1 Randy Demmer Lean D
81 Sanchez, Loretta CA47 Van Tran Lean D
82 Boswell IA3 Brad Zaun Lean D
83 Kind WI3 Dan Kapanke Lean D
84 Loebsack IA2 Marianette Miller-Meeks Lean D
85 Kennedy, P. RI1 John Loughlin Lean D
86 Himes CT4 Dan Debicella Lean D
87 Shuler NC11 Jeff Miller Lean D
88 McMahon NY13 Michael Grimm Lean D
89 Altmire PA4 Keith Rothfus Lean D
90 Maffei NY25 Ann Marie Buerkle Lean D
91 Murphy, C. CT5 Sam Caliguri Lean D
92 Sutton OH13 Tom Ganley Lean D
93 Perlmutter CO7 Ryan Frazier Lean D
94 Braley IA1 Benjamin Lange Lean D
95 Oberstar MN8 Chip Cravaack Lean D
96 Carnahan MO3 Ed Martin Lean D
97 Ortiz TX27 Blake Farenthold Lean D
98 Pingree ME1 Dean Scontras Lean D
99 Hinchey NY22 George Phillips Lean D
100 Frank MA4 Sean Bielat Lean D
101 Holden PA17 Dave Argall Likely D
102 Yarmuth KY3 Todd Lally Likely D
103 Rahall WV3 Elliot "Spike" Maynard Likely D
104 Bean IL8 Joe Walsh Likely D
105 Cardoza CA18 Michael Berryhill Likely D
106 Holt NJ12 Scott Sipprelle Likely D
107 Wu OR1 Rob Cornilles Likely D
108 Matheson UT2 Morgan Philpot Likely D
109 Ross AR4 Beth Anne Rankin Likely D
110 DeFazio OR4 Art Robinson Likely D
111 Tierney MA6 Bill Hudak Likely D
112 Cooper TN5 David Hall Likely D
113 Lujan NM3 Thomas E. Mullins Likely D
114 Doggett TX25 Donna Campbell Likely D
115 Kucinich OH10 Peter Corrigan Likely D
116 Michaud ME2 Jason Levesque Likely D
117 Smith, Adam WA9 Dick Muri Likely D
118 Price, D. NC4 William "BJ" Lawson Likely D
119 Tsongas MA5 Jon Golnik Likely D
120 Barrow GA12 Ray McKinney Likely D
121 McCarthy, C. NY4 Fran Becker Likely D
122 Pallone Jr. NJ6 Anna Little Likely D
123 Dicks WA6 Doug Cloud Long Shot
124 Peterson MN7 Lee Byberg Long Shot
125 Boren OK2 Charles Thompson Long Shot
126 Cuellar TX28 Bryan Underwood Long Shot
127 Courtney CT2 Janet Peckinpaugh Long Shot
128 Miller, B. NC13 Bill Randall Long Shot
129 Dingell MI15 Rob Steele Long Shot
130 Filner CA51 Nick Popaditch Long Shot
131 Kaptur OH9 Rich Lott Long Shot
132 Capps CA23 Tom Watson Long Shot
133 Weiner NY9 Bob Turner Long Shot
134 Schwartz PA13 Carson Dee Adcock Long Shot
135 Polis CO2 Stephen Bailey Long Shot
136 Hinojosa TX15 Eddie Zamora Long Shot
137 Israel NY2 John Gomez Long Shot
138 Inslee WA1 James Watkins Long Shot
139 Castor FL11 Mike Prendergast Long Shot
140 Costello IL12 Teri Davis Newman Long Shot
141 Hoyer MD5 Charles Lollar Long Shot
142 Kildee MI5 John Kupiec Long Shot
143 Sarbanes MD3 Jim Wilhelm Long Shot
144 Tonko NY21 Theodore Danz Long Shot
145 Carson IN7 Marvin Scott Long Shot
146 Ruppersberger MD2 Marcelo Cardarelli Long Shot
147 Green, G. TX29 Roy Morales Long Shot
148 Gonzalez TX20 Clayton Trotter Long Shot
149 DeGette CO1 Mike Fallon Long Shot
150 Richardson CA37 Star Parker Long Shot
Permalink: http://www.clubforgrowth.org/perm/?postID=14376
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More Prognosticator Movement to Republicans UPDATED

Posted on Oct. 29, 10 | 11:32 AM by David Keating | Topic: Elections
Larry Sabato and Stewart Rothenberg updated their House ratings yesterday. 

Sabato moved 38 races toward Republicans and only four against them.  Now, Sabato does things differently, which is that he calls races for one party or the other in his final assessment.  He dumps the toss-up category.  Still, the ratio is stunning.  His call? 

A gain of 55 seats for Republicans. 

Rothenberg moved 34 seats toward Republicans, and just one against them.  His call?

"Likely Republican gain of 55-65 seats, with gains at or above 70 seats possible."

National Journal polled its insiders, both Democrats and Republicans.  Democrats predicted 47 seats for Republicans and the Republicans estimated 53. 

I was part of the National Journal poll.  My guess was 72. 

As I write this, Charlie Cook just published a new stream of race updates.  I don't know how many, but judging from the size of my unread mail, it's a lot.  And it's still coming in.

UPDATE:

"The Cook Political Report's pre-election House outlook is a Democratic net loss of 48 to 60 seats, with higher losses possible."

These guys are soundling like weather forecasters before a big winter storm.  6-12 inches, but it may be 24 inches.

Permalink: http://www.clubforgrowth.org/perm/?postID=14372
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Club for Growth Action Launches Radio Ad in CA-11

Posted on Oct. 29, 10 | 10:08 AM by Michael Connolly | Topic: Elections
WASHINGTON – Club for Growth Action today announced a radio advertising buy in California’s 11th congressional district race between incumbent Democrat Rep. Jerry McNerney and pro-growth conservative challenger David Harmer.

“While the Giants and Rangers decide the World Series next week, 11th district voters will be deciding what kind of economy they want to pass on to their children,” said Club President Chris Chocola.  “Incumbent Congressman Jerry McNerney has had his way for four years now, and the results are higher debt, bigger government, and millions of lost jobs.”

The ad, titled “Baseball,” will air via a substantial radio buy across the 11th district between now and election day.

###

PAID FOR BY CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTION AND NOT AUTHORIZED BY ANY CANDIDATE OR CANDIDATE'S COMMITTEE. 202-955-5500.


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Washingtonians Rebel Against Income Tax

Posted on Oct. 29, 10 | 09:21 AM by Andrew Roth | Topic: Elections
From a SurveyUSA poll in the state of Washington:

On initiative 1098, which would create a state income tax on individual filers earning more than $200,000 and on couples earning more than $400,000, as well as reduce state property taxes, reduce certain business and occupation taxes, and direct any increased revenues to education and health, are you ... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain? 

Yes 34%
No 56%
Not Certain 10%
Permalink: http://www.clubforgrowth.org/perm/?postID=14368
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100 Write-In Candidates in Alaska

Posted on Oct. 29, 10 | 09:11 AM by Andrew Roth | Topic: Elections
This is outstanding.  From the POLITICO:

Just hours before the final deadline, more than 100 Alaskans came out Thursday to file as write-in candidates in an effort to thwart Sen. Lisa Murkowski's bid to retain her Senate seat. 
 
At the urging of a local talk radio host, scores of people signed up to be write-in candidates with the Alaska Division of Elections before registration closed. 
 
The move by the new Senate hopefuls was prompted by a recent decision by the Alaska Supreme Court paving the way for election officials to hand out lists of write-in candidates at polling locations. Another hearing is scheduled for Friday morning to address the matter.  

PAID FOR BY CLUB FOR GROWTH PAC AND NOT AUTHORIZED BY ANY CANDIDATE OR CANDIDATE'S COMMITTEE. 202-955-5500.

Permalink: http://www.clubforgrowth.org/perm/?postID=14367
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Throw the Bums Out!

Posted on Oct. 28, 10 | 11:52 AM by Andrew Roth | Topic: Elections
From Rasmussen Reports:

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 65% of Likely U.S. Voters say if they had the option next week, they would vote to get rid of the entire Congress and start all over again. Only 20% would opt to keep the entire Congress instead. Fifteen percent (15%) aren’t sure.
Permalink: http://www.clubforgrowth.org/perm/?postID=14361
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CFG Election Night Scoreboard

Posted on Oct. 28, 10 | 11:02 AM by Andrew Roth | Topic: Elections
Next Tuesday, we're going to launch our Election Night Scoreboard.  You'll be able to track how Club PAC-endorsed candidates are doing in their races and you'll also be able to chat with the Club's staff and other Club members.

You can access the Scoreboard now (we're still making edits), but the bells and whistles won't light up until 6pm EDT on Tuesday.  We hope you can join us.
Permalink: http://www.clubforgrowth.org/perm/?postID=14360
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