Blog  //   TV  //   Press Releases  //   Dumb Laws  //   Member-Generated Links
Club for Growth Blog

Topic: Elections

On Delaware and New Hampshire

Posted on Sep. 13, 10 | 01:08 PM by Michael Connolly | Topic: Elections
The conservative blogosphere is atwitter today about the late surges of Senate candidates Christine O’Donnell in Delaware and Ovide Lamontagne.  The controversy is a familiar one.

On the one hand, movement conservatives would be wonderful in those seats.  But on the other, if those movement conservatives can’t win in November, that has to be part of the calculus, too.  It’s neither disloyal or dumb to be conflicted in these cases.

(The Club for Growth PAC has taken no position on either race, and I take no personal position here, either.)

But one point commentators are missing, I think, is the reason  conservative primary voters may be willing to risk defeat in November for principle in the primaries.  It is because of the leadership of the Republican Party in Washington. 

If conservatives trusted that a Mike Castle, say, would be kept in line by the official GOP in Washington, they would be more willing to hold their noses and vote for him.  But for conservatives, “pragmatism” is often the victory of hope over experience.

Is it really the case that Mitch McConnell and the Senate Republican leadership will pull Castle to the right, or that Castle will pull them to the left?  Whatever side you’re on, I think the experience of Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins – even on the fiscal issues on which they are supposed “conservative” – makes the answer unclear.

If Castle is a sure vote to repeal Obamacare, for instance, that would matter – as it did for Tea Party conservatives who rightly supported moderate Scott Brown in Massachusetts. 

But will Castle really be the 60th vote to repeal Obamacare, when the time comes?  Or would he instead form a  bipartisan “Gang” with Snowe, Collins, Joe Lieberman, and a handful of Democrats to “modify” Obamacare, and to rescue it from full repeal?

I don’t know.  Neither do the bloggers.  And neither do the perfectly sensible Republican primary voters in New Hampshire and Delaware.  Castle/Ayotte voters are not sell outs, and O’Donnell/Lamontagne voters are not foolish.  They’re both trying to figure out how best to save the country from an out-of-control Democratic government and an out-of-its-depth Republican establishment.
Permalink: http://www.clubforgrowth.org/perm/?postID=14042
Member Comments (21)

105 House Democratic Seats Now In Play

Posted on Sep. 10, 10 | 10:59 AM by David Keating | Topic: Elections
I'm tracking four of the prognosticators who rate House races -- Cook, Rothenberg, Sabato and CQ, and in the last week there have been many updates in race ratings, and every one has moved toward Republicans.

Between the four prognosticators an incredible 105 Democratic seats are in play, up from 104.  I think there are a few more seats that will come into play over the coming weeks.
  • 30 seats are very slightly to safely Republican.
  • 25 are pure toss ups.
  • 27 are leaning Democratic.
That means an incredible 82 Democratic seats are considered very endangered. 

Another 23 seats are rated likely Democratic by at least one of the four, and in 15 cases two or more of the prognosticators.

Here is the list of the Democratic seats most likely to switch, based on the most aggressive prognosticator.  In the event of a tie, the prognositcator average breaks the tie and if the ranking is still tied, my computer rating of the seat breaks that tie.

Rank 2010 Incumbent District Nominee
1 Melancon LA3 TBD
2 Gordon TN6 Dianne Black
3 Snyder AR2 Tim Griffin
4 Massa NY29 Tom Reed (likely)
5 Markey CO4 Cory Gardner
6 Kosmas FL24 Sandy Adams
7 Moore, D. KS3 Kevin Yoder
8 Ellsworth IN8 Larry Bucshon
9 Kratovil MD1 Andy Harris (likely)
10 Kilroy OH15 Steve Stivers
11 Teague NM2 Steve Pearce
12 Driehaus OH1 Steve Chabot
13 Shea-Porter NH1 TBD
14 Baird WA3 Jaime Herrera
15 Hodes NH2 TBD
16 Edwards, C. TX17 Bill Flores
17 Berry AR1 Rick Crawford
18 Pomeroy ND99 Richard Berg
19 Tanner TN8 Stephen Fincher
20 Halvorson IL11 Adam Kinzinger
21 Childers MS1 Alan Nunnelee
22 Titus NV3 Joe Heck
23 Perriello VA5 Robert Hurt
24 Nye VA2 Scott Rigell
25 Grayson FL8 Dan Webster
26 Boyd FL2 Steve Southerland
27 Dahlkemper PA3 Mike Kelly
28 Stupak MI1 Dan Benishek
29 Arcuri NY24 Richard Hanna
30 Kanjorski PA11 Lou Barletta
31 Mollohan WV1 David McKinley
32 Schauer MI7 Tim Walberg
33 Spratt SC5 Mick Mulvaney
34 Boccieri OH16 Jim Renacci
35 Sestak PA7 Pat Meehan
36 Hill IN9 Todd Young
37 Herseth Sandlin SD99 Kristi Noem
38 Foster IL14 Randy Hultgren
39 Obey WI7 Sean Duffy (likely)
40 Kirkpatrick AZ1 Paul Gosar
41 Minnick ID1 Raul Labrador
42 Bright AL2 Martha Roby
43 Carney PA10 Thomas Marino
44 Marshall GA8 Austin Scott
45 McNerney CA11 David Harmer
46 Hall, J. NY19 Nan Hayworth (likely)
47 Mitchell AZ5 David Schweikert
48 Kissell NC8 Harold Johnson
49 Boswell IA3 Brad Zaun
50 Murphy, P. PA8 Michael Fitzpatrick
51 Kagen WI8 TBD
52 Rodriguez, C. TX23 Quico Canseco
53 Space OH18 Bob Gibbs
54 Salazar CO3 Scott Tipton
55 Giffords AZ8 Jesse Kelly
56 Donnelly IN2 Jackie Walorski Swihart
57 Heinrich NM1 Johnathan L. Barela
58 Adler NJ3 Jon Runyon
59 Sutton OH13 Tom Ganley
60 Davis, L. TN4 Scott DesJarlais
61 Skelton MO4 Vicky Hartzler
62 Boucher VA9 Morgan Griffith
63 Chandler KY6 Andy Barr
64 Schrader OR5 Scott Bruun
65 Murphy NY20 Chris Gibson
66 Owens NY23 TBD
67 Bishop NY1 TBD
68 Critz PA12 Tim Burns
69 Delahunt MA10 TBD
70 Connolly VA11 Keith Fimian
71 Klein FL22 Allen West
72 Larsen WA2 John Koster
73 Peters MI9 Rocky Raczkowski
74 McMahon NY13 TBD
75 Sanchez, Loretta CA47 Van Tran
76 Shuler NC11 Jeff Miller
77 Bishop, S. GA2 Mike Keown
78 Hare IL17 Bobby Schilling
79 Kind WI3 Dan Kapanke (likely)
80 Pallone Jr. NJ6 Anna Little
81 Perlmutter CO7 Ryan Frazier
82 Costa CA20 Andy Vidak
83 Holden PA17 Dave Argall
84 Altmire PA4 Keith Rothfus
85 Maffei NY25 Ann Marie Buerkle
86 Yarmuth KY3 Todd Lally
87 Rahall WV3 Elliot "Spike" Maynard
88 Himes CT4 Dan Debicella
89 Walz MN1 Randy Demmer
90 Murphy, C. CT5 Sam Caliguri
91 Bean IL8 Joe Walsh
92 Etheridge NC2 Renee Ellmers
93 McIntyre NC7 Ilario Pantano
94 Cardoza CA18 Michael Berryhill
95 Loebsack IA2 Marianette Miller-Meeks
96 Wu OR1 Rob Cornilles
97 Kennedy, P. RI1 John Loughlin (likely)
98 Matheson UT2 Morgan Philpot
99 Ross AR4 Beth Anne Rankin
100 Wilson, C. OH6 Bill Johnson
101 Braley IA1 Benjamin Lange
102 Holt NJ12 Scott Sipprelle
103 Barrow GA12 Ray McKinney
104 McCarthy, C. NY4 TBD
105 Carnahan MO3 Ed Martin
       
Permalink: http://www.clubforgrowth.org/perm/?postID=14033
Member Comments (0) Add a Comment

Club PAC Analyzes New FL-Sen Poll

Posted on Sep. 09, 10 | 02:08 PM by Michael Connolly | Topic: Elections
Club for Growth Communications Director Michael Connolly issued the following statement analyzing a new poll released today by Sunshine State News, which shows pro-growth conservative Republican Marco Rubio with a 14-point lead over Gov. Charlie Crist in the Florida Senate race.

"Well, duh," Connolly said.

As Connolly subtly implies, the poll shows that as Floridians turn their attention to the Senate race, they are finding themselves as embarrassed by Crist's thieving, creepy, self-serving campaign as the rest of the country.

PAID FOR BY CLUB FOR GROWTH PAC AND NOT AUTHORIZED BY ANY CANDIDATE OR CANDIDATE'S COMMITTEE. 202-955-5500.

Permalink: http://www.clubforgrowth.org/perm/?postID=14026
Member Comments (5)

Club for Growth PAC Endorses David Schweikert in AZ-05

Posted on Sep. 07, 10 | 04:54 PM by Michael Connolly | Topic: Elections
WASHINGTON – Club for Growth PAC today announced its endorsement of David Schweikert in the race to represent Arizona’s 5th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives.  Schweikert faces U.S. Rep. Harry Mitchell.

“David Schweikert understands how jobs and prosperity are created, and what Washington needs to do to help Americans create them again,” said Club President Chris Chocola.  “Schweikert understands that economic freedom leads to economic growth and that limited government leads to unlimited opportunities.”

“Harry Mitchell is Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama’s idea of a moderate – he’s a liberal,” Chocola said.  “Mitchell can call himself what he likes, but when you vote for $3 trillion in new government programs in two years – including TARP, the Stimulus, and Obamacare – you’re a liberal, period.”

Club for Growth PAC endorsed Schweikert in 2008, when Mitchell won 53-43 percent.

Schweikert is the 23rd candidate the Club for Growth PAC has endorsed in the 2010 election cycle.  He joins Senators Jim DeMint (S.C.) and Tom Coburn (Okla.), Congressman Tom Graves (GA-09), Senate candidates Mike Lee (Utah), Ron Johnson (Wis.), Sharron Angle (Nev.), Rand Paul (Ky.), Marco Rubio (Fla.), Ken  Buck (Col.), Joe Miller (Alaska), and Pat Toomey (Pa.), and House candidates Tim Huelskamp (KS-01), Mike Pompeo (KS-04), Jeff Duncan (SC-03), Tim Scott (SC-01), Justin Amash (MI-03), Mick Mulvaney (SC-05), Todd Young, (IN-09), Stephen Fincher (TN-08), and Tim Griffin (AR-02).

###

PAID FOR BY CLUB FOR GROWTH PAC AND NOT AUTHORIZED BY ANY CANDIDATE OR CANDIDATE'S COMMITTEE. 202-955-5500.

Permalink: http://www.clubforgrowth.org/perm/?postID=14014
Member Comments (1)

New Polls Point to GOP Tsunami

Posted on Sep. 07, 10 | 11:05 AM by Andrew Roth | Topic: Elections
 
Permalink: http://www.clubforgrowth.org/perm/?postID=14007
Member Comments (4)

Herding Ninjas

Posted on Sep. 03, 10 | 01:31 PM by Michael Connolly | Topic: Elections
On Election night, the Republican Party is expected to "pick up" anywhere from 4 to 10 Senate seats currently held by Democrats. 

But rather like batting average in baseball, the "pick up" statistic doesn't tell us too much. 

Consider: if Marco Rubio, Pat Toomey, Mike Lee, Joe Miller, and Rand Paul all win on November, they will account for all of one "pickup."  But even that one -- Toomey -- is replacing a guy who was elected as a Republican six years ago.

And yet, from the perspective of the Club for Growth's agenda -- or any conservative point of view -- four of the five are huge upgrades, probably better than the swapping out of a moderate Republican for a moderate Democrat.  The fifth, Paul, will probably out-perform outgoing Sen. Jim Bunning, though Bunning is a reliable conservative in his own right.

Regardless of whether the GOP retakes control of the Senate, the real news on Nov. 2 will be that the Senate Republican Conference will be much more principled, much more economically conservative, and much less interested in the beltway establishment playbook.

Senate leadership famously refers to its difficult job as "herding cats."  But with Rubio, Toomey, Lee, Miller, Paul and the rest of Generation Club joining Jim DeMint and Tom Coburn, it's going to be more like herding ninjas.

PAID FOR BY CLUB FOR GROWTH PAC AND NOT AUTHORIZED BY ANY CANDIDATE OR CANDIDATE'S COMMITTEE. 202-955-5500.

Permalink: http://www.clubforgrowth.org/perm/?postID=13994
Member Comments (1)

104 Democratic House Seats Now in Play

Posted on Sep. 02, 10 | 01:22 PM by David Keating | Topic: Elections
As I wrote Aug. 17, I'm tracking four of the prognosticators who rate House races -- Cook, Rothenberg, Sabato and CQ.

There have been some updates since my last blog post, so I thought I'd update my rankings of Democratic seats in play.

Between the four an incredible 104 Democratic seats are in play, up from 103.  I think there are a few more seats that will come into play over the coming weeks.
  • 36 (was 26) seats are very slightly to strongly leaning Republican.
  • 21 (was 16) are pure toss ups to very slightly tilting Democratic.
  • 29 (was 25) are leaning Democratic
That means an incredible 77 seats are very seriously in play.  Now, in fairness, I did change the methodology slightly.  I'm now using the most aggressive prognosticator.  I'm doing this because updates are slow in coming and the first one to call a race more competitive seems accurate.

Another 27 seats are rated likely Democratic but at least one of the four, and in 15 cases two or more of the prognosticators.

Here is the list of the Democratic seats most likely to switch, based on the most aggressive prognosticator (my last ranking had used an average).  In the event of a tie, the pundit average breaks the tie and if the ranking is still tied, my computer rating of the seat breaks that tie.

Rank 2010 Incumbent District GOP Candidate
1 Gordon TN6 Dianne Black
2 Melancon LA3 TBD
3 Snyder AR2 Tim Griffin
4 Massa NY29 Tom Reed (likely)
5 Kratovil MD1 TBD
6 Kilroy OH15 Steve Stivers
7 Teague NM2 Steve Pearce
8 Driehaus OH1 Steve Chabot
9 Moore, D. KS3 Kevin Yoder
10 Ellsworth IN8 Larry Bucshon
11 Markey CO4 Cory Gardner
12 Shea-Porter NH1 TBD
13 Hodes NH2 TBD
14 Pomeroy ND99 Richard Berg
15 Tanner TN8 Stephen Fincher
16 Kosmas FL24 TBD
17 Childers MS1 Alan Nunnelee
18 Titus NV3 Joe Heck
19 Perriello VA5 Robert Hurt
20 Nye VA2 Scott Rigell
21 Grayson FL8 TBD
22 Stupak MI1 Dan Benishek
23 Arcuri NY24 Richard Hanna
24 Kanjorski PA11 Lou Barletta
25 Mollohan WV1 David McKinley
26 Schauer MI7 Tim Walberg
27 Baird WA3 TBD
28 Sestak PA7 Pat Meehan
29 Foster IL14 Randy Hultgren
30 Edwards, C. TX17 Bill Flores
31 Berry AR1 Rick Crawford
32 Bright AL2 Martha Roby
33 Hill IN9 Todd Young
34 Minnick ID1 Raul Labrador
35 Spratt SC5 Mick Mulvaney
36 Dahlkemper PA3 Mike Kelly
37 Obey WI7 Sean Duffy (likely)
38 Kissell NC8 Harold Johnson
39 Herseth Sandlin SD99 Kristi Noem
40 Boyd FL2 TBD
41 Kirkpatrick AZ1 TBD
42 Boccieri OH16 Jim Renacci
43 Giffords AZ8 TBD
44 Halvorson IL11 Adam Kinzinger
45 McNerney CA11 David Harmer
46 Hall, J. NY19 Nan Hayworth (likely)
47 Adler NJ3 Jon Runyon
48 Murphy, P. PA8 Michael Fitzpatrick
49 Boucher VA9 Morgan Griffith
50 Space OH18 Bob Gibbs
51 Donnelly IN2 Jackie Walorski Swihart
52 Mitchell AZ5 TBD
53 Heinrich NM1 Johnathan L. Barela
54 Boswell IA3 Brad Zaun
55 Owens NY23 TBD
56 Bishop NY1 TBD
57 Critz (Murtha) PA12 Tim Burns
58 Delahunt MA10 TBD
59 Skelton MO4 Vicky Hartzler
60 Carney PA10 Thomas Marino
61 Connolly VA11 Keith Fimian
62 Kagen WI8 TBD
63 Salazar CO3 Scott Tipton
64 Murphy NY20 Chris Gibson
65 Sutton OH13 Tom Ganley
66 Marshall GA8 Austin Scott
67 Chandler KY6 Andy Barr
68 McMahon NY13 TBD
69 Schrader OR5 Scott Bruun
70 Klein FL22 Allen West (likely)
71 Rodriguez, C. TX23 Quico Canseco
72 Peters MI9 Rocky Raczkowski
73 Shuler NC11 Jeff Miller
74 Holden PA17 Dave Argall
75 Altmire PA4 Keith Rothfus
76 Murphy, C. CT5 Sam Caliguri
77 Kind WI3 TBD
78 Pallone Jr. NJ6 Anna Little
79 Davis, L. TN4 Scott DesJarlais
80 Himes CT4 Dan Debicella
81 Walz MN1 Randy Demmer
82 Maffei NY25 Ann Marie Buerkle
83 Sanchez, Loretta CA47 Van Tran
84 Rahall WV3 Elliot "Spike" Maynard
85 Bean IL8 Joe Walsh
86 Etheridge NC2 Renee Ellmers
87 Cardoza CA18 Michael Berryhill
88 Yarmuth KY3 Todd Lally
89 Larsen WA2 John Koster
90 Loebsack IA2 Marianette Miller-Meeks
91 Barrow GA12 Ray McKinney
92 Matheson UT2 Morgan Philpot
93 Ross AR4 Beth Anne Rankin
94 McIntyre NC7 Ilario Pantano
95 Wilson, C. OH6 Bill Johnson
96 Bishop, S. GA2 Mike Keown
97 Perlmutter CO7 Ryan Frazier
98 Hare IL17 Bobby Schilling
99 Costa CA20 Andy Vidak
100 Braley IA1 Benjamin Lange
101 Holt NJ12 Scott Sipprelle
102 Wu OR1 Rob Cornilles
103 Carnahan MO3 Ed Martin
104 Kennedy, P. RI1 John Loughlin (likely)
       
Permalink: http://www.clubforgrowth.org/perm/?postID=13989
Member Comments (2)

New Club for Growth Action TV Ad: "Liberal" Joe Sestak

Posted on Sep. 02, 10 | 08:07 AM by Andrew Roth | Topic: Elections
 

PAID FOR BY CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTION AND NOT AUTHORIZED BY ANY CANDIDATE OR CANDIDATE'S COMMITTEE. 202-955-5500.

Permalink: http://www.clubforgrowth.org/perm/?postID=13987
Member Comments (0) Add a Comment

Charlie Cook: Nothing Is on the Horizon to Save Democrats

Posted on Sep. 01, 10 | 09:22 AM by Andrew Roth | Topic: Elections
 Political forecaster Charlie Cook offers more dire news for the Democrats:

Simply put, Democrats find themselves heading into a midterm election that looks as grisly as any the party has faced in decades. It isn't hard to find Democratic pollsters who privately concede that the numbers they are looking at now are worse than what they saw in 1994.

The race-by-race outlook confirms the dire forecasts. Cook Political Report House Editor David Wasserman points out that at this point, 32 Democratic incumbents are running even or behind their Republican challengers in one or more public or private polls. At this point in 2006, when Republicans lost control of Congress, only 11 GOP incumbents were running even or behind.

Privately, some Democratic pollsters say that they are routinely seeing districts where Democratic incumbents are running only even with relatively unknown GOP challengers. In other districts where the Republican challengers are reasonably well known, the incumbents are often running 5-10 points behind, a rather extraordinary development at this point.

In the Senate, while the odds still favor Democrats holding on to a narrow majority, it is not only mathematically possible for the GOP to capture a majority this year, but it has become plausible. The odds of Democrats capturing even one currently Republican-held seat appear to be getting longer. Meanwhile, Republicans are running ahead or roughly even in 11 Democratic-held seats, one more than necessary for control of the Senate to flip. It's still a tall order but not crazy to say that Republicans will win the Senate.
Permalink: http://www.clubforgrowth.org/perm/?postID=13978
Member Comments (1)

Club for Growth PAC Congratulates Senate Nominee Joe Miller

Posted on Aug. 31, 10 | 10:24 PM by Michael Connolly | Topic: Elections
WASHINGTON – Club for Growth PAC today congratulated Joe Miller on his victory over incumbent Sen. Lisa Murkowski in Alaska’s Republican Senate primary.

“Joe Miller represents a new generation of pro-growth conservative leadership committed to America’s founding principles of limited government and economic freedom,” said Club President Chris Chocola.  “We congratulate Joe on his victory and Alaska Republicans on their courage and judgment.”
                              
“We look forward to helping Miller win the general election in November , and helping him straighten out the Senate and the Republican Party once he gets here,” Chocola said.

###

PAID FOR BY CLUB FOR GROWTH PAC AND NOT AUTHORIZED BY ANY CANDIDATE OR CANDIDATE'S COMMITTEE. 202-955-5500.

Permalink: http://www.clubforgrowth.org/perm/?postID=13976
Member Comments (0) Add a Comment

How Big Could a GOP Wave Get?

Posted on Aug. 31, 10 | 04:38 PM by David Keating | Topic: Elections
Stunning  poll results from Gallup, which you probably heard about:

Republicans lead by 51% to 41% among registered voters in Gallup weekly tracking of 2010 congressional voting preferences. The 10-percentage-point lead is the GOP's largest so far this year and is its largest in Gallup's history of tracking the midterm generic ballot for Congress.

If this generic ballot was the basis for a wave election favoring Republicans, what might that mean?

A 40 seat pickup for the GOP? 50? 70?

By my calculations, that could translate to 117 seats, assuming the generic translated to actual voting at five percentage points higher than the maximum Republican presidential voting performance in the last three elections.

Now, I'm not projecting 117 seats.  Some people like their local Democrat more than average.  And in some districts, the GOP candidate is lacking in money, candidate skills or both.  Still, this number puts the generic ballot into perspective.

The amazing thing about the Gallup poll -- this was of registered voters, not likely voters!

The "wave" could be a tsunami.
Permalink: http://www.clubforgrowth.org/perm/?postID=13975
Member Comments (4)


Use Arrows to Open and Close Articles
Club for Growth is a national network of thousands of Americans, from all walks of life, who believe that prosperity and opportunity come through economic freedom. We work to promote public policies that promote economic growth primarily through legislative involvement, issue advocacy, research, training and educational activity. Join today!

Username



Password


Remember me | Forgot password?
OR
Join Today