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New Poll Shows Commanding Lead for Tim Scott in SC-01

Posted on May. 26, 10 | 01:42 PM by Michael Connolly | Topic: Elections
Link to Article: http://www.clubforgrowth.org/perm/?postID=13430

WASHINGTON – The Club for Growth today released the following memorandum from Adam Geller, CEO of National Research Inc., about the findings of a new poll conducted in South Carolina’s first congressional district.  
 

TO:        THE CLUB FOR GROWTH
FROM:        ADAM GELLER
RE:        SURVEY RESULTS IN SOUTH CAROLINA CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT 1
DATE:        MAY 26, 2010

Tim Scott holds a very strong lead over his opponents in the multi candidate primary in the First congressional district.  His image rating is also better than those of his opponents and he leads among those surveyed who have a favorable opinion of competing candidates.  Finally, Scott is far ahead in scenarios that tested head-to- head runoff ballots against two of Scott’s opponents.

Specific findings:

·    Tim Scott is winning three times as many votes as his closest competitor. 
In the multi-candidate ballot, Scott wins 30%, followed by Carroll Campbell III (10%);  Paul Thurmond (9%);  Clark Parker (9%); Larry Kobrovsky (8%); W. Stovall White (6%); Mark Lutz (4%);  Ken Glasson (2%) and Katherine Jenrette (2%).

·    Tim Scott has a better favorable rating than his competitors. Scott’s image is a very strong 53% favorable/5% unfavorable.   On the other hand, Carroll Campbell’s image is 48%-11% and Paul Thurmond’s is 34%-10%.  Among the 48% with a favorable opinion of Campbell, Scott leads 29% to 17% for Campbell.  Among the 34% with a favorable opinion of Thurmond, Scott leads 29% to 24% for Thurmond.  This bodes very well for Scott in a potential runoff against either candidate.

·    Tim Scott has a very large lead in the two run-off scenarios tested in the poll.  Scott leads Campbell 53%-28% in a one-on-one matchup and he leads Thurmond 55%-19% in the other. 

The Bottom Line: It is difficult for even a popular candidate like Tim Scott to achieve 50% in a crowded primary like this one.  But Scott is well positioned to win the primary, and, should a run-off be necessary, appears to be the strong favorite to win the GOP nomination. 

National Research Inc. conducted a telephone survey of 300 likely Republican primary voters in South Carolina’s 1st  Congressional District on May 23-24, 2010.  The survey has a margin of error of +/- 5.66% in 95 out of 100 cases. 

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Permalink: http://www.clubforgrowth.org/perm/?postID=13430
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