103 Democratic Seats in Play
Posted on Aug. 17, 10 | 01:51 PM by David Keating | Topic: ElectionsLink to Article: http://www.clubforgrowth.org/perm/?postID=13914
I've never seen so many House seats in play in one party. I'm tracking four of the pundits who rate House races -- Cook, Rothenberg, Sabato and CQ.
Between the four an incredible 103 Democratic seats are in play. I think they have missed maybe 3 to 5 seats, but they may list them sooner or later.
Another 38 seats are rated likely Democratic but at least one of the four, and two thirds of the cases two or more of the pundits.
Here is the list of the seats most likely to switch, based on the pundit average. In the event of a tie, my computer rating of the seat breaks the tie.
Permalink: http://www.clubforgrowth.org/perm/?postID=13914
Member Comments (1)
Between the four an incredible 103 Democratic seats are in play. I think they have missed maybe 3 to 5 seats, but they may list them sooner or later.
- 24 seats are very slightly to strongly leaning Republican.
- 16 are pure toss ups to very slightly tilting Democratic.
- 25 are leaning Democratic
Another 38 seats are rated likely Democratic but at least one of the four, and two thirds of the cases two or more of the pundits.
Here is the list of the seats most likely to switch, based on the pundit average. In the event of a tie, my computer rating of the seat breaks the tie.
| Rank | 2010 Incumbent | District | GOP Candidate |
| 1 | Gordon | TN6 | Dianne Black |
| 2 | Melancon | LA3 | TBD |
| 3 | Snyder | AR2 | Tim Griffin |
| 4 | Massa | NY29 | Tom Reed (likely) |
| 5 | Kratovil | MD1 | TBD |
| 6 | Kilroy | OH15 | Steve Stivers |
| 7 | Teague | NM2 | Steve Pearce |
| 8 | Driehaus | OH1 | Steve Chabot |
| 9 | Moore, D. | KS3 | Kevin Yoder |
| 10 | Ellsworth | IN8 | Larry Bucshon |
| 11 | Markey | CO4 | Cory Gardner |
| 12 | Shea-Porter | NH1 | TBD |
| 13 | Hodes | NH2 | TBD |
| 14 | Pomeroy | NDAL | Richard Berg |
| 15 | Tanner | TN8 | Stephen Fincher |
| 16 | Kosmas | FL24 | TBD |
| 17 | Childers | MS1 | Alan Nunnelee |
| 18 | Titus | NV3 | Joe Heck |
| 19 | Perriello | VA5 | Robert Hurt |
| 20 | Nye | VA2 | Scott Rigell |
| 21 | Grayson | FL8 | TBD |
| 22 | Stupak | MI1 | Dan Benishek |
| 23 | Arcuri | NY24 | Richard Hanna |
| 24 | Kanjorski | PA11 | Lou Barletta |
| 25 | Mollohan | WV1 | David McKinley |
| 26 | Schauer | MI7 | Tim Walberg |
| 27 | Baird | WA3 | TBD |
| 28 | Sestak | PA7 | Pat Meehan |
| 29 | Foster | IL14 | Randy Hultgren |
| 30 | Edwards, C. | TX17 | Bill Flores |
| 31 | Berry | AR1 | Rick Crawford |
| 32 | Bright | AL2 | Martha Roby |
| 33 | Hill | IN9 | Todd Young |
| 34 | Minnick | ID1 | Raul Labrador |
| 35 | Spratt | SC5 | Mick Mulvaney |
| 36 | Dahlkemper | PA3 | Mike Kelly |
| 37 | Obey | WI7 | Sean Duffy (likely) |
| 38 | Kissell | NC8 | Harold Johnson |
| 39 | Herseth Sandlin | SDAL | Kristi Noem |
| 40 | Boyd | FL2 | TBD |
| 41 | Kirkpatrick | AZ1 | TBD |
| 42 | Boccieri | OH16 | Jim Renacci |
| 43 | Giffords | AZ8 | TBD |
| 44 | Halvorson | IL11 | Adam Kinzinger |
| 45 | McNerney | CA11 | David Harmer |
| 46 | Hall, J. | NY19 | Nan Hayworth (likely) |
| 47 | Adler | NJ3 | Jon Runyon |
| 48 | Murphy, P. | PA8 | Michael Fitzpatrick |
| 49 | Boucher | VA9 | Morgan Griffith |
| 50 | Space | OH18 | Bob Gibbs |
| 51 | Donnelly | IN2 | Jackie Walorski Swihart |
| 52 | Mitchell | AZ5 | TBD |
| 53 | Heinrich | NM1 | Johnathan L. Barela |
| 54 | Boswell | IA3 | Brad Zaun |
| 55 | Owens | NY23 | TBD |
| 56 | Bishop | NY1 | TBD |
| 57 | Critz | PA12 | Tim Burns |
| 58 | Delahunt | MA10 | TBD |
| 59 | Skelton | MO4 | Vicky Hartzler |
| 60 | Carney | PA10 | Thomas Marino |
| 61 | Connolly | VA11 | Keith Fimian |
| 62 | Kagen | WI8 | TBD |
| 63 | Salazar | CO3 | Scott Tipton |
| 64 | Murphy | NY20 | Chris Gibson |
| 65 | Sutton | OH13 | Tom Ganley |
| 66 | Marshall | GA8 | Austin Scott |
| 67 | Chandler | KY6 | Andy Barr |
| 68 | McMahon | NY13 | TBD |
| 69 | Schrader | OR5 | Scott Bruun |
| 70 | Klein | FL22 | Allen West (likely) |
| 71 | Rodriguez, C. | TX23 | Quico Canseco |
| 72 | Peters | MI9 | Rocky Raczkowski |
| 73 | Shuler | NC11 | Jeff Miller |
| 74 | Holden | PA17 | Dave Argall |
| 75 | Altmire | PA4 | Keith Rothfus |
| 76 | Murphy, C. | CT5 | Sam Caliguri |
| 77 | Kind | WI3 | TBD |
| 78 | Pallone Jr. | NJ6 | Anna Little |
| 79 | Davis, L. | TN4 | Scott DesJarlais |
| 80 | Himes | CT4 | Dan Debicella |
| 81 | Walz | MN1 | Randy Demmer |
| 82 | Maffei | NY25 | Ann Marie Buerkle |
| 83 | Sanchez, Loretta | CA47 | Van Tran |
| 84 | Rahall | WV3 | Elliot "Spike" Maynard |
| 85 | Bean | IL8 | Joe Walsh |
| 86 | Etheridge | NC2 | Renee Ellmers |
| 87 | Cardoza | CA18 | Michael Berryhill |
| 88 | Yarmuth | KY3 | Todd Lally |
| 89 | Larsen | WA2 | John Koster |
| 90 | Loebsack | IA2 | Marianette Miller-Meeks |
| 91 | Barrow | GA12 | Ray McKinney |
| 92 | Matheson | UT2 | Morgan Philpot |
| 93 | Ross | AR4 | Beth Anne Rankin |
| 94 | McIntyre | NC7 | Ilario Pantano |
| 95 | Wilson, C. | OH6 | Bill Johnson |
| 96 | Bishop, S. | GA2 | Mike Keown |
| 97 | Perlmutter | CO7 | Ryan Frazier |
| 98 | Hare | IL17 | Bobby Schilling |
| 99 | Costa | CA20 | Andy Vidak |
| 100 | Braley | IA1 | Benjamin Lange |
| 101 | Holt | NJ12 | Scott Sipprelle |
| 102 | Wu | OR1 | Rob Cornilles |
| 103 | Carnahan | MO3 | Ed Martin |
Member Comments (1)
