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103 Democratic Seats in Play

Posted on Aug. 17, 10 | 01:51 PM by David Keating | Topic: Elections
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I've never seen so many House seats in play in one party.  I'm tracking four of the pundits who rate House races -- Cook, Rothenberg, Sabato and CQ.

Between the four an incredible 103 Democratic seats are in play.  I think they have missed maybe 3 to 5 seats, but they may list them sooner or later.
  • 24 seats are very slightly to strongly leaning Republican.
  • 16 are pure toss ups to very slightly tilting Democratic.
  • 25 are leaning Democratic
That means an incredible 65 seats are very seriously in play.

Another 38 seats are rated likely Democratic but at least one of the four, and two thirds of the cases two or more of the pundits.

Here is the list of the seats most likely to switch, based on the pundit average.  In the event of a tie, my computer rating of the seat breaks the tie.

Rank 2010 Incumbent District GOP Candidate
1 Gordon TN6 Dianne Black
2 Melancon LA3 TBD
3 Snyder AR2 Tim Griffin
4 Massa NY29 Tom Reed (likely)
5 Kratovil MD1 TBD
6 Kilroy OH15 Steve Stivers
7 Teague NM2 Steve Pearce
8 Driehaus OH1 Steve Chabot
9 Moore, D. KS3 Kevin Yoder
10 Ellsworth IN8 Larry Bucshon
11 Markey CO4 Cory Gardner
12 Shea-Porter NH1 TBD
13 Hodes NH2 TBD
14 Pomeroy NDAL Richard Berg
15 Tanner TN8 Stephen Fincher
16 Kosmas FL24 TBD
17 Childers MS1 Alan Nunnelee
18 Titus NV3 Joe Heck
19 Perriello VA5 Robert Hurt
20 Nye VA2 Scott Rigell
21 Grayson FL8 TBD
22 Stupak MI1 Dan Benishek
23 Arcuri NY24 Richard Hanna
24 Kanjorski PA11 Lou Barletta
25 Mollohan WV1 David McKinley
26 Schauer MI7 Tim Walberg
27 Baird WA3 TBD
28 Sestak PA7 Pat Meehan
29 Foster IL14 Randy Hultgren
30 Edwards, C. TX17 Bill Flores
31 Berry AR1 Rick Crawford
32 Bright AL2 Martha Roby
33 Hill IN9 Todd Young
34 Minnick ID1 Raul Labrador
35 Spratt SC5 Mick Mulvaney
36 Dahlkemper PA3 Mike Kelly
37 Obey WI7 Sean Duffy (likely)
38 Kissell NC8 Harold Johnson
39 Herseth Sandlin SDAL Kristi Noem
40 Boyd FL2 TBD
41 Kirkpatrick AZ1 TBD
42 Boccieri OH16 Jim Renacci
43 Giffords AZ8 TBD
44 Halvorson IL11 Adam Kinzinger
45 McNerney CA11 David Harmer
46 Hall, J. NY19 Nan Hayworth (likely)
47 Adler NJ3 Jon Runyon
48 Murphy, P. PA8 Michael Fitzpatrick
49 Boucher VA9 Morgan Griffith
50 Space OH18 Bob Gibbs
51 Donnelly IN2 Jackie Walorski Swihart
52 Mitchell AZ5 TBD
53 Heinrich NM1 Johnathan L. Barela
54 Boswell IA3 Brad Zaun
55 Owens NY23 TBD
56 Bishop NY1 TBD
57 Critz PA12 Tim Burns
58 Delahunt MA10 TBD
59 Skelton MO4 Vicky Hartzler
60 Carney PA10 Thomas Marino
61 Connolly VA11 Keith Fimian
62 Kagen WI8 TBD
63 Salazar CO3 Scott Tipton
64 Murphy NY20 Chris Gibson
65 Sutton OH13 Tom Ganley
66 Marshall GA8 Austin Scott
67 Chandler KY6 Andy Barr
68 McMahon NY13 TBD
69 Schrader OR5 Scott Bruun
70 Klein FL22 Allen West (likely)
71 Rodriguez, C. TX23 Quico Canseco
72 Peters MI9 Rocky Raczkowski
73 Shuler NC11 Jeff Miller
74 Holden PA17 Dave Argall
75 Altmire PA4 Keith Rothfus
76 Murphy, C. CT5 Sam Caliguri
77 Kind WI3 TBD
78 Pallone Jr. NJ6 Anna Little
79 Davis, L. TN4 Scott DesJarlais
80 Himes CT4 Dan Debicella
81 Walz MN1 Randy Demmer
82 Maffei NY25 Ann Marie Buerkle
83 Sanchez, Loretta CA47 Van Tran
84 Rahall WV3 Elliot "Spike" Maynard
85 Bean IL8 Joe Walsh
86 Etheridge NC2 Renee Ellmers
87 Cardoza CA18 Michael Berryhill
88 Yarmuth KY3 Todd Lally
89 Larsen WA2 John Koster
90 Loebsack IA2 Marianette Miller-Meeks
91 Barrow GA12 Ray McKinney
92 Matheson UT2 Morgan Philpot
93 Ross AR4 Beth Anne Rankin
94 McIntyre NC7 Ilario Pantano
95 Wilson, C. OH6 Bill Johnson
96 Bishop, S. GA2 Mike Keown
97 Perlmutter CO7 Ryan Frazier
98 Hare IL17 Bobby Schilling
99 Costa CA20 Andy Vidak
100 Braley IA1 Benjamin Lange
101 Holt NJ12 Scott Sipprelle
102 Wu OR1 Rob Cornilles
103 Carnahan MO3 Ed Martin
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