As I wrote Aug. 17, I'm tracking four of the prognosticators who rate House races -- Cook, Rothenberg, Sabato and CQ.

There have been some updates since my last blog post, so I thought I'd update my rankings of Democratic seats in play.

Between the four an incredible 104 Democratic seats are in play, up from 103.  I think there are a few more seats that will come into play over the coming weeks.

• 36 (was 26) seats are very slightly to strongly leaning Republican.
• 21 (was 16) are pure toss ups to very slightly tilting Democratic.
• 29 (was 25) are leaning Democratic

That means an incredible 77 seats are very seriously in play.  Now, in fairness, I did change the methodology slightly.  I'm now using the most aggressive prognosticator.  I'm doing this because updates are slow in coming and the first one to call a race more competitive seems accurate.

Another 27 seats are rated likely Democratic but at least one of the four, and in 15 cases two or more of the prognosticators.

Here is the list of the Democratic seats most likely to switch, based on the most aggressive prognosticator (my last ranking had used an average).  In the event of a tie, the pundit average breaks the tie and if the ranking is still tied, my computer rating of the seat breaks that tie.

Rank	2010 Incumbent	District	GOP Candidate
1	Gordon	TN6	Dianne Black
2	Melancon	LA3	TBD
3	Snyder	AR2	Tim Griffin
4	Massa	NY29	Tom Reed (likely)
5	Kratovil	MD1	TBD
6	Kilroy	OH15	Steve Stivers
7	Teague	NM2	Steve Pearce
8	Driehaus	OH1	Steve Chabot
9	Moore, D.	KS3	Kevin Yoder
10	Ellsworth	IN8	Larry Bucshon
11	Markey	CO4	Cory Gardner
12	Shea-Porter	NH1	TBD
13	Hodes	NH2	TBD
14	Pomeroy	ND99	Richard Berg
15	Tanner	TN8	Stephen Fincher
16	Kosmas	FL24	TBD
17	Childers	MS1	Alan Nunnelee
18	Titus	NV3	Joe Heck
19	Perriello	VA5	Robert Hurt
20	Nye	VA2	Scott Rigell
21	Grayson	FL8	TBD
22	Stupak	MI1	Dan Benishek
23	Arcuri	NY24	Richard Hanna
24	Kanjorski	PA11	Lou Barletta
25	Mollohan	WV1	David McKinley
26	Schauer	MI7	Tim Walberg
27	Baird	WA3	TBD
28	Sestak	PA7	Pat Meehan
29	Foster	IL14	Randy Hultgren
30	Edwards, C.	TX17	Bill Flores
31	Berry	AR1	Rick Crawford
32	Bright	AL2	Martha Roby
33	Hill	IN9	Todd Young
34	Minnick	ID1	Raul Labrador
35	Spratt	SC5	Mick Mulvaney
36	Dahlkemper	PA3	Mike Kelly
37	Obey	WI7	Sean Duffy (likely)
38	Kissell	NC8	Harold Johnson
39	Herseth Sandlin	SD99	Kristi Noem
40	Boyd	FL2	TBD
41	Kirkpatrick	AZ1	TBD
42	Boccieri	OH16	Jim Renacci
43	Giffords	AZ8	TBD
44	Halvorson	IL11	Adam Kinzinger
45	McNerney	CA11	David Harmer
46	Hall, J.	NY19	Nan Hayworth (likely)
47	Adler	NJ3	Jon Runyon
48	Murphy, P.	PA8	Michael Fitzpatrick
49	Boucher	VA9	Morgan Griffith
50	Space	OH18	Bob Gibbs
51	Donnelly	IN2	Jackie Walorski Swihart
52	Mitchell	AZ5	TBD
53	Heinrich	NM1	Johnathan L. Barela
54	Boswell	IA3	Brad Zaun
55	Owens	NY23	TBD
56	Bishop	NY1	TBD
57	Critz (Murtha)	PA12	Tim Burns
58	Delahunt	MA10	TBD
59	Skelton	MO4	Vicky Hartzler
60	Carney	PA10	Thomas Marino
61	Connolly	VA11	Keith Fimian
62	Kagen	WI8	TBD
63	Salazar	CO3	Scott Tipton
64	Murphy	NY20	Chris Gibson
65	Sutton	OH13	Tom Ganley
66	Marshall	GA8	Austin Scott
67	Chandler	KY6	Andy Barr
68	McMahon	NY13	TBD
69	Schrader	OR5	Scott Bruun
70	Klein	FL22	Allen West (likely)
71	Rodriguez, C.	TX23	Quico Canseco
72	Peters	MI9	Rocky Raczkowski
73	Shuler	NC11	Jeff Miller
74	Holden	PA17	Dave Argall
75	Altmire	PA4	Keith Rothfus
76	Murphy, C.	CT5	Sam Caliguri
77	Kind	WI3	TBD
78	Pallone Jr.	NJ6	Anna Little
79	Davis, L.	TN4	Scott DesJarlais
80	Himes	CT4	Dan Debicella
81	Walz	MN1	Randy Demmer
82	Maffei	NY25	Ann Marie Buerkle
83	Sanchez, Loretta	CA47	Van Tran
84	Rahall	WV3	Elliot "Spike" Maynard
85	Bean	IL8	Joe Walsh
86	Etheridge	NC2	Renee Ellmers
87	Cardoza	CA18	Michael Berryhill
88	Yarmuth	KY3	Todd Lally
89	Larsen	WA2	John Koster
90	Loebsack	IA2	Marianette Miller-Meeks
91	Barrow	GA12	Ray McKinney
92	Matheson	UT2	Morgan Philpot
93	Ross	AR4	Beth Anne Rankin
94	McIntyre	NC7	Ilario Pantano
95	Wilson, C.	OH6	Bill Johnson
96	Bishop, S.	GA2	Mike Keown
97	Perlmutter	CO7	Ryan Frazier
98	Hare	IL17	Bobby Schilling
99	Costa	CA20	Andy Vidak
100	Braley	IA1	Benjamin Lange
101	Holt	NJ12	Scott Sipprelle
102	Wu	OR1	Rob Cornilles
103	Carnahan	MO3	Ed Martin
104	Kennedy, P.	RI1	John Loughlin (likely)

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