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150 Democratic House Seats Most Likely to Switch -- UPDATE

Posted on Sep. 30, 10 | 12:53 PM by David Keating | Topic: Elections
Link to Article:

It seems every time I publish an update, one of my prognosticators updates a bunch of races.  This time Sabato's Crystal Ball this morning changed ratings in 21 races, and each one in the Republican direction.  I don't even remember the last time one of the races moved in the direction of the Democrats.

Mostly these changes just move candidates up or down a few notches.  But the seats extremely at risk go up one to 86.
  • 33 seats are very slightly to safely Republican.
  • 26 are toss ups.
  • 27 are leaning Democratic.
Another 25 seats are rated likely Democratic by at least one of the four, and in 13 cases two or more of the prognosticators.  So a total of 111 Democratic House seats are in play.  Charlie Cook has the most expansive list right now.

Here is the list of the 150 Democratic seats most likely to switch.  For the top 111 it is based on the most aggressive prognosticator.  In the event of a tie, the prognosticator average breaks the tie and if the ranking is still tied, my computer rating of the seat breaks that tie.  Seats ranked 112-150 are based on my computer ranking of the seat.

Rank 2010 Incumbent District Nominee
1 Melancon LA3 TBD
2 Gordon TN6 Dianne Black
3 Snyder AR2 Tim Griffin
4 Ellsworth IN8 Larry Bucshon
5 Moore, D. KS3 Kevin Yoder
6 Massa NY29 Tom Reed
7 Edwards, C. TX17 Bill Flores
8 Markey CO4 Cory Gardner
9 Kosmas FL24 Sandy Adams
10 Halvorson IL11 Adam Kinzinger
11 Kratovil MD1 Andy Harris
12 Kilroy OH15 Steve Stivers
13 Driehaus OH1 Steve Chabot
14 Stupak MI1 Dan Benishek
15 Baird WA3 Jaime Herrera
16 Hodes NH2 Charlie Bass
17 Tanner TN8 Stephen Fincher
18 Teague NM2 Steve Pearce
19 Kirkpatrick AZ1 Paul Gosar
20 Dahlkemper PA3 Mike Kelly
21 Perriello VA5 Robert Hurt
22 Nye VA2 Scott Rigell
23 Shea-Porter NH1 Frank Guinta
24 Kanjorski PA11 Lou Barletta
25 Berry AR1 Rick Crawford
26 Pomeroy ND1 Richard Berg
27 Sestak PA7 Pat Meehan
28 Childers MS1 Alan Nunnelee
29 Titus NV3 Joe Heck
30 Grayson FL8 Dan Webster
31 Boyd FL2 Steve Southerland
32 Obey WI7 Sean Duffy
33 Kagan WI8 Reid Ribble
34 Mollohan WV1 David McKinley
35 Schauer MI7 Tim Walberg
36 Herseth Sandlin SD1 Kristi Noem
37 Spratt SC5 Mick Mulvaney
38 Boccieri OH16 Jim Renacci
39 Mitchell AZ5 David Schweikert
40 Arcuri NY24 Richard Hanna
41 Hill IN9 Todd Young
42 Marshall GA8 Austin Scott
43 Foster IL14 Randy Hultgren
44 Hall, J. NY19 Nan Hayworth
45 Carney PA10 Thomas Marino
46 Minnick ID1 Raul Labrador
47 Bright AL2 Martha Roby
48 McNerney CA11 David Harmer
49 Kissell NC8 Harold Johnson
50 Boswell IA3 Brad Zaun
51 Murphy, P. PA8 Michael Fitzpatrick
52 Salazar CO3 Scott Tipton
53 Hare IL17 Bobby Schilling
54 Rodriguez, C. TX23 Quico Canseco
55 Space OH18 Bob Gibbs
56 Giffords AZ8 Jesse Kelly
57 Klein FL22 Allen West
58 Bishop, S. GA2 Mike Keown
59 Bishop NY1 Randy Altschuler
60 Donnelly IN2 Jackie Walorski Swihart
61 Heinrich NM1 Johnathan L. Barela
62 Schrader OR5 Scott Bruun
63 Adler NJ3 Jon Runyan
64 Sutton OH13 Tom Ganley
65 Delahunt MA10 Jeff Perry
66 Davis, L. TN4 Scott DesJarlais
67 Skelton MO4 Vicky Hartzler
68 Boucher VA9 Morgan Griffith
69 Chandler KY6 Andy Barr
70 Murphy NY20 Chris Gibson
71 Owens NY23 Matt Doheny
72 Critz PA12 Tim Burns
73 Larsen WA2 John Koster
74 Peters MI9 Rocky Raczkowski
75 Connolly VA11 Keith Fimian
76 Sanchez, Loretta CA47 Van Tran
77 McMahon NY13 Michael Grimm
78 Kind WI3 Dan Kapanke
79 Rahall WV3 Elliot "Spike" Maynard
80 Himes CT4 Dan Debicella
81 Shuler NC11 Jeff Miller
82 Pallone Jr. NJ6 Anna Little
83 Kennedy, P. RI1 John Loughlin
84 Wilson, C. OH6 Bill Johnson
85 Perlmutter CO7 Ryan Frazier
86 Costa CA20 Andy Vidak
87 Holden PA17 Dave Argall
88 Altmire PA4 Keith Rothfus
89 Walz MN1 Randy Demmer
90 Maffei NY25 Ann Marie Buerkle
91 Yarmuth KY3 Todd Lally
92 Murphy, C. CT5 Sam Caliguri
93 Taylor MS4 Steven Palazzo
94 Bean IL8 Joe Walsh
95 Etheridge NC2 Renee Ellmers
96 McIntyre NC7 Ilario Pantano
97 Cardoza CA18 Michael Berryhill
98 Loebsack IA2 Marianette Miller-Meeks
99 Wu OR1 Rob Cornilles
100 Matheson UT2 Morgan Philpot
101 Ross AR4 Beth Anne Rankin
102 Pingree ME1 Dean Scontras
103 Braley IA1 Benjamin Lange
104 Michaud ME2 Jason Levesque
105 Smith, Adam WA9 Dick Muri
106 Holt NJ12 Scott Sipprelle
107 Tsongas MA5 Jon Golnik
108 Hinchey NY22 George Phillips
109 Barrow GA12 Ray McKinney
110 McCarthy, C. NY4 Fran Becker
111 Carnahan MO3 Ed Martin
112 Ortiz TX27 Blake Farenthold
113 Cuellar TX28 Bryan Underwood
114 Peterson MN7 Lee Byberg
115 Lujan NM3 Thomas E. Mullins
116 Miller, B. NC13 Bill Randall
117 DeFazio OR4 Art Robinson
118 Cooper TN5 David Hall
119 Schwartz PA13 Carson Dee Adcock
120 Weiner NY9 Bob Turner
121 Courtney CT2 Janet Peckinpaugh
122 Kaptur OH9 Rich Lott
123 Capps CA23 Tom Watson
124 Dingell MI15 Rob Steele
125 Doggett TX25 Donna Campbell
126 Kucinich OH10 Peter Corrigan
127 Tierney MA6 Bill Hudak
128 Hinojosa TX15 Eddie Zamora
129 Inslee WA1 James Watkins
130 Hoyer MD5 Charles Lollar
131 Castor FL11 Mike Prendergast
132 Israel NY2 John Gomez
133 Sarbanes MD3 Jim Wilhelm
134 Costello IL12 Teri Davis Newman
135 Polis CO2 Stephen Bailey
136 Ruppersberger MD2 Marcelo Cardarelli
137 Green, G. TX29 Roy Morales
138 Oberstar MN8 Chip Cravaack
139 Tonko NY21 Theodore Danz
140 Gonzalez TX20 Clayton Trotter
141 Carson IN7 Marvin Scott
142 Filner CA51 Nick Popaditch
143 Dicks WA6 Doug Cloud
144 Price, D. NC4 William "BJ" Lawson
145 Schakowsky IL9 Joel Pollak
146 Blumenauer OR3 Delia Lopez
147 Richardson CA37 Star Parker
148 DeGette CO1 Mike Fallon
149 Frank MA4 Sean Beliat
150 Boren OK2 Charles Thompson
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