It seems every time I publish an update, one of my prognosticators updates a bunch of races.  This time Sabato's Crystal Ball this morning changed ratings in 21 races, and each one in the Republican direction.  I don't even remember the last time one of the races moved in the direction of the Democrats.

Mostly these changes just move candidates up or down a few notches.  But the seats extremely at risk go up one to 86.

• 33 seats are very slightly to safely Republican.
• 26 are toss ups.
• 27 are leaning Democratic.

Another 25 seats are rated likely Democratic by at least one of the four, and in 13 cases two or more of the prognosticators.  So a total of 111 Democratic House seats are in play.  Charlie Cook has the most expansive list right now.

Here is the list of the 150 Democratic seats most likely to switch.  For the top 111 it is based on the most aggressive prognosticator.  In the event of a tie, the prognosticator average breaks the tie and if the ranking is still tied, my computer rating of the seat breaks that tie.  Seats ranked 112-150 are based on my computer ranking of the seat.

Rank	2010 Incumbent	District	Nominee
1	Melancon	LA3	TBD
2	Gordon	TN6	Dianne Black
3	Snyder	AR2	Tim Griffin
4	Ellsworth	IN8	Larry Bucshon
5	Moore, D.	KS3	Kevin Yoder
6	Massa	NY29	Tom Reed
7	Edwards, C.	TX17	Bill Flores
8	Markey	CO4	Cory Gardner
9	Kosmas	FL24	Sandy Adams
10	Halvorson	IL11	Adam Kinzinger
11	Kratovil	MD1	Andy Harris
12	Kilroy	OH15	Steve Stivers
13	Driehaus	OH1	Steve Chabot
14	Stupak	MI1	Dan Benishek
15	Baird	WA3	Jaime Herrera
16	Hodes	NH2	Charlie Bass
17	Tanner	TN8	Stephen Fincher
18	Teague	NM2	Steve Pearce
19	Kirkpatrick	AZ1	Paul Gosar
20	Dahlkemper	PA3	Mike Kelly
21	Perriello	VA5	Robert Hurt
22	Nye	VA2	Scott Rigell
23	Shea-Porter	NH1	Frank Guinta
24	Kanjorski	PA11	Lou Barletta
25	Berry	AR1	Rick Crawford
26	Pomeroy	ND1	Richard Berg
27	Sestak	PA7	Pat Meehan
28	Childers	MS1	Alan Nunnelee
29	Titus	NV3	Joe Heck
30	Grayson	FL8	Dan Webster
31	Boyd	FL2	Steve Southerland
32	Obey	WI7	Sean Duffy
33	Kagan	WI8	Reid Ribble
34	Mollohan	WV1	David McKinley
35	Schauer	MI7	Tim Walberg
36	Herseth Sandlin	SD1	Kristi Noem
37	Spratt	SC5	Mick Mulvaney
38	Boccieri	OH16	Jim Renacci
39	Mitchell	AZ5	David Schweikert
40	Arcuri	NY24	Richard Hanna
41	Hill	IN9	Todd Young
42	Marshall	GA8	Austin Scott
43	Foster	IL14	Randy Hultgren
44	Hall, J.	NY19	Nan Hayworth
45	Carney	PA10	Thomas Marino
46	Minnick	ID1	Raul Labrador
47	Bright	AL2	Martha Roby
48	McNerney	CA11	David Harmer
49	Kissell	NC8	Harold Johnson
50	Boswell	IA3	Brad Zaun
51	Murphy, P.	PA8	Michael Fitzpatrick
52	Salazar	CO3	Scott Tipton
53	Hare	IL17	Bobby Schilling
54	Rodriguez, C.	TX23	Quico Canseco
55	Space	OH18	Bob Gibbs
56	Giffords	AZ8	Jesse Kelly
57	Klein	FL22	Allen West
58	Bishop, S.	GA2	Mike Keown
59	Bishop	NY1	Randy Altschuler
60	Donnelly	IN2	Jackie Walorski Swihart
61	Heinrich	NM1	Johnathan L. Barela
62	Schrader	OR5	Scott Bruun
63	Adler	NJ3	Jon Runyan
64	Sutton	OH13	Tom Ganley
65	Delahunt	MA10	Jeff Perry
66	Davis, L.	TN4	Scott DesJarlais
67	Skelton	MO4	Vicky Hartzler
68	Boucher	VA9	Morgan Griffith
69	Chandler	KY6	Andy Barr
70	Murphy	NY20	Chris Gibson
71	Owens	NY23	Matt Doheny
72	Critz	PA12	Tim Burns
73	Larsen	WA2	John Koster
74	Peters	MI9	Rocky Raczkowski
75	Connolly	VA11	Keith Fimian
76	Sanchez, Loretta	CA47	Van Tran
77	McMahon	NY13	Michael Grimm
78	Kind	WI3	Dan Kapanke
79	Rahall	WV3	Elliot "Spike" Maynard
80	Himes	CT4	Dan Debicella
81	Shuler	NC11	Jeff Miller
82	Pallone Jr.	NJ6	Anna Little
83	Kennedy, P.	RI1	John Loughlin
84	Wilson, C.	OH6	Bill Johnson
85	Perlmutter	CO7	Ryan Frazier
86	Costa	CA20	Andy Vidak
87	Holden	PA17	Dave Argall
88	Altmire	PA4	Keith Rothfus
89	Walz	MN1	Randy Demmer
90	Maffei	NY25	Ann Marie Buerkle
91	Yarmuth	KY3	Todd Lally
92	Murphy, C.	CT5	Sam Caliguri
93	Taylor	MS4	Steven Palazzo
94	Bean	IL8	Joe Walsh
95	Etheridge	NC2	Renee Ellmers
96	McIntyre	NC7	Ilario Pantano
97	Cardoza	CA18	Michael Berryhill
98	Loebsack	IA2	Marianette Miller-Meeks
99	Wu	OR1	Rob Cornilles
100	Matheson	UT2	Morgan Philpot
101	Ross	AR4	Beth Anne Rankin
102	Pingree	ME1	Dean Scontras
103	Braley	IA1	Benjamin Lange
104	Michaud	ME2	Jason Levesque
105	Smith, Adam	WA9	Dick Muri
106	Holt	NJ12	Scott Sipprelle
107	Tsongas	MA5	Jon Golnik
108	Hinchey	NY22	George Phillips
109	Barrow	GA12	Ray McKinney
110	McCarthy, C.	NY4	Fran Becker
111	Carnahan	MO3	Ed Martin
112	Ortiz	TX27	Blake Farenthold
113	Cuellar	TX28	Bryan Underwood
114	Peterson	MN7	Lee Byberg
115	Lujan	NM3	Thomas E. Mullins
116	Miller, B.	NC13	Bill Randall
117	DeFazio	OR4	Art Robinson
118	Cooper	TN5	David Hall
119	Schwartz	PA13	Carson Dee Adcock
120	Weiner	NY9	Bob Turner
121	Courtney	CT2	Janet Peckinpaugh
122	Kaptur	OH9	Rich Lott
123	Capps	CA23	Tom Watson
124	Dingell	MI15	Rob Steele
125	Doggett	TX25	Donna Campbell
126	Kucinich	OH10	Peter Corrigan
127	Tierney	MA6	Bill Hudak
128	Hinojosa	TX15	Eddie Zamora
129	Inslee	WA1	James Watkins
130	Hoyer	MD5	Charles Lollar
131	Castor	FL11	Mike Prendergast
132	Israel	NY2	John Gomez
133	Sarbanes	MD3	Jim Wilhelm
134	Costello	IL12	Teri Davis Newman
135	Polis	CO2	Stephen Bailey
136	Ruppersberger	MD2	Marcelo Cardarelli
137	Green, G.	TX29	Roy Morales
138	Oberstar	MN8	Chip Cravaack
139	Tonko	NY21	Theodore Danz
140	Gonzalez	TX20	Clayton Trotter
141	Carson	IN7	Marvin Scott
142	Filner	CA51	Nick Popaditch
143	Dicks	WA6	Doug Cloud
144	Price, D.	NC4	William "BJ" Lawson
145	Schakowsky	IL9	Joel Pollak
146	Blumenauer	OR3	Delia Lopez
147	Richardson	CA37	Star Parker
148	DeGette	CO1	Mike Fallon
149	Frank	MA4	Sean Beliat
150	Boren	OK2	Charles Thompson

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