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New Poll Shows Three-Way Toss Up in Alaska Senate Race

Posted on Oct. 14, 10 | 03:19 PM by Michael Connolly | Topic: Elections
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WASHINGTON – Club for Growth Action today released the following memorandum from Adam Geller of National Research, Inc. about the findings of a new poll in the Alaska Senate race.


TO:        Club for Growth Action
FROM:        Adam Geller
RE:        Poll Results in Alaska
DATE:        October 14, 2010

Our recent survey in Alaska uncovered a VERY close race in the Senate campaign.  Joe Miller leads the pack with 33%, followed by Lisa Murkowski (31%) and Scott McAdams (27%).  McAdams is within the poll’s 4.9% margin of error to Murkowski’s support, and Murkowski is within the margin of error to Miller’s total.

·    Miller’s committed (definite) vote stands at 29%, while Murkowski (22%) and McAdams (21%) are virtually tied among their own definite voters.

·    McAdams is defeating Murkowski 29%-26% among 55-64 year olds – the “pre senior” bloc of voters who are particularly concerned with fiscal and economic issues as they are transitioning into their retirement years.  Miller leads among this group with 35%.

·    While most voters in Alaska identify themselves as conservative, and Miller leads the pack by wide margins among those voters, it is surprising that McAdams and Murkowski are both tied at 36% each among voters who consider themselves moderate -  a substantial 37% of Alaskan voters.

·    Joe Miller leads comfortably in the Anchorage media market, while the candidates are more bunched up in the Fairbanks market.  However, it is in the Juneau market where McAdams is actually demolishing Murkowski by wide margins.

The bottom line in this particular ballot test is that Miller leads among the high value groups and targets, while McAdams and Murkowski are locked in a dead heat among other important groups, such as pre-seniors (who turn out in big numbers), and the most committed voters.

The head-to-head ballot test question was asked without providing any information about the candidates prior to the question.  The question asked was “If the election for Senate were held today, for whom would you vote between: (ROTATE) Joe Miller, the Republican; Scott McAdams, the Democrat or another candidate?”  (If a choice was made, the respondent was asked: “Would that be definitely, or just probably?” Those who were undecided were asked “Who are you leaning toward?”)  The question was asked this way to simulate the choice voters would face in the polling booth.

National Research Inc. conducted a telephone survey in Alaska on October 8-9, 2010.  The survey was conducted among 400 likely voters and has a margin of error of +/- 4.9% in 95 out of 100 cases. 



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