Prognosticator updates came in late yesterday and today from Cook and Sabato.  Cook moved an amazing 17 races toward Republicans and only three against them.  The three moving against the Republicans were incumbents and an open seat.  Cook moved many of the Democratic seats to toss-up status.    Sabato moved just one race, but that too went toward Repubicans.

There are still 116 Democratic seats as in play, according to my analysis of four of the top prognosticators who rate House races.  This means that at least one of the four rates the race as other than solidly Democratic.

The real shocker of this update is that 99 Democratic seats are highly at risk, up by 7 since the last update! 

    * 37 seats are very slightly to safely Republican. (Up 1)
    * 34 are toss ups. (Up 5)
    * 28 are leaning Democratic. (Up 1)

Another 17 seats are rated likely Democratic by at least one of the four, and in 6 cases two or more of the prognosticators (down 4).  So a total of 116 Democratic House seats are in play.

Below is the list of the 150 Democratic seats most likely to switch.  New for this week is a rating my model gives to each seat. For the top 116 it is based on the most aggressive prognosticator.  In the event of a tie, the prognosticator average breaks the tie and if the ranking is still tied, my computer rating of the seat breaks that tie.  Seats ranked 117-150 are based on my computer ranking of the seat.

Methodology:

I'm tracking four prognosticators who rate House races who I think do the best job -- Cook, Rothenberg, Sabato and CQ. My list of the Democratic seats most likely to switch is based on the most aggressive prognosticator in assessing the race in favor of the Republican.  I have found that the most aggressive one is usually a leading indicator this year.  As we get closer to the election and updates are more rapid from each prognosticator, I may take an average of the four.  Currently in the event of a tie between races, the prognosticator average breaks the tie and if the ranking is still tied, my computer rating of the voting behavior of the seat breaks that tie.  Seats not considered in play by the four prognosticators are ranked based on my computer ranking of the seat's voting behavior and quality of the Republican nominee's campaign.

This analysis does NOT predict how many seats will flip to Republican.  It just lists those that are at least somewhat competitive.  It is likely that only a relative few of the seats listed after ranking #99 will flip to Republican.  Don't expect more than at most a handful, if any, of the races labeled long shots to come in.

This list also does not include Republican seats in play.  There are two that are likely to flip to the Democrats -- DE-AL (Castle) and LA-2 (Cao).

Rank	2010 Incumbent	District	Nominee	Rating
1	Melancon	LA3	Jeff Landry	Safe R
2	Gordon	TN6	Dianne Black	Safe R
3	Snyder	AR2	Tim Griffin	Likely R
4	Ellsworth	IN8	Larry Bucshon	Likely R
5	Moore, D.	KS3	Kevin Yoder	Likely R
6	Edwards, C.	TX17	Bill Flores	Likely R
7	Kilroy	OH15	Steve Stivers	Likely R
8	Massa	NY29	Tom Reed	Likely R
9	Markey	CO4	Cory Gardner	Likely R
10	Halvorson	IL11	Adam Kinzinger	Likely R
11	Kosmas	FL24	Sandy Adams	Likely R
12	Tanner	TN8	Stephen Fincher	Likely R
13	Dahlkemper	PA3	Mike Kelly	Likely R
14	Driehaus	OH1	Steve Chabot	Lean R
15	Kratovil	MD1	Andy Harris	Lean R
16	Kirkpatrick	AZ1	Paul Gosar	Lean R
17	Perriello	VA5	Robert Hurt	Lean R
18	Nye	VA2	Scott Rigell	Lean R
19	Stupak	MI1	Dan Benishek	Lean R
20	Shea-Porter	NH1	Frank Guinta	Lean R
21	Baird	WA3	Jaime Herrera	Lean R
22	Hodes	NH2	Charlie Bass	Lean R
23	Teague	NM2	Steve Pearce	Lean R
24	Grayson	FL8	Dan Webster	Lean R
25	Kagen	WI8	Reid Ribble	Lean R
26	Kanjorski	PA11	Lou Barletta	Lean R
27	Berry	AR1	Rick Crawford	Lean R
28	Pomeroy	ND1	Richard Berg	Lean R
29	Obey	WI7	Sean Duffy	Lean R
30	Sestak	PA7	Pat Meehan	Lean R
31	Childers	MS1	Alan Nunnelee	Lean R
32	Murphy, P.	PA8	Michael Fitzpatrick	Lean R
33	Kissell	NC8	Harold Johnson	Lean R
34	Titus	NV3	Joe Heck	Toss Up/Tilt R
35	Boyd	FL2	Steve Southerland	Toss Up/Tilt R
36	Boccieri	OH16	Jim Renacci	Toss Up/Tilt R
37	Space	OH18	Bob Gibbs	Toss Up/Tilt R
38	Mollohan	WV1	David McKinley	Toss Up
39	Schauer	MI7	Tim Walberg	Toss Up
40	Herseth Sandlin	SD1	Kristi Noem	Toss Up
41	Marshall	GA8	Austin Scott	Toss Up
42	Spratt	SC5	Mick Mulvaney	Toss Up
43	Mitchell	AZ5	David Schweikert	Toss Up
44	Arcuri	NY24	Richard Hanna	Toss Up
45	Hill	IN9	Todd Young	Toss Up
46	Carney	PA10	Thomas Marino	Toss Up
47	Foster	IL14	Randy Hultgren	Toss Up
48	Hall, J.	NY19	Nan Hayworth	Toss Up
49	Bright	AL2	Martha Roby	Toss Up
50	McNerney	CA11	David Harmer	Toss Up
51	Giffords	AZ8	Jesse Kelly	Toss Up
52	Minnick	ID1	Raul Labrador	Toss Up
53	Salazar	CO3	Scott Tipton	Toss Up
54	Schrader	OR5	Scott Bruun	Toss Up
55	Adler	NJ3	Jon Runyan	Toss Up
56	Klein	FL22	Allen West	Toss Up
57	Hare	IL17	Bobby Schilling	Toss Up
58	Rodriguez, C.	TX23	Quico Canseco	Toss Up
59	Davis, L.	TN4	Scott DesJarlais	Toss Up
60	Chandler	KY6	Andy Barr	Toss Up
61	Boswell	IA3	Brad Zaun	Toss Up
62	Owens	NY23	Matt Doheny	Toss Up
63	Bishop, S.	GA2	Mike Keown	Toss Up
64	Delahunt	MA10	Jeff Perry	Toss Up
65	Donnelly	IN2	Jackie Walorski Swihart	Toss Up
66	Skelton	MO4	Vicky Hartzler	Toss Up
67	Murphy	NY20	Chris Gibson	Toss Up
68	Wilson, C.	OH6	Bill Johnson	Toss Up
69	Taylor	MS4	Steven Palazzo	Toss Up
70	Grijalva	AZ7	Ruth McClung	Toss Up
71	Bishop	NY1	Randy Altschuler	Toss Up/Tilt D
72	Heinrich	NM1	Johnathan L. Barela	Lean D
73	Critz	PA12	Tim Burns	Lean D
74	Boucher	VA9	Morgan Griffith	Lean D
75	Larsen	WA2	John Koster	Lean D
76	Peters	MI9	Rocky Raczkowski	Lean D
77	Connolly	VA11	Keith Fimian	Lean D
78	Maffei	NY25	Ann Marie Buerkle	Lean D
79	Sanchez, Loretta	CA47	Van Tran	Lean D
80	Kind	WI3	Dan Kapanke	Lean D
81	McMahon	NY13	Michael Grimm	Lean D
82	Altmire	PA4	Keith Rothfus	Lean D
83	Walz	MN1	Randy Demmer	Lean D
84	Murphy, C.	CT5	Sam Caliguri	Lean D
85	Sutton	OH13	Tom Ganley	Lean D
86	Rahall	WV3	Elliot "Spike" Maynard	Lean D
87	Himes	CT4	Dan Debicella	Lean D
88	Shuler	NC11	Jeff Miller	Lean D
89	McIntyre	NC7	Ilario Pantano	Lean D
90	Perlmutter	CO7	Ryan Frazier	Lean D
91	Pallone Jr.	NJ6	Anna Little	Lean D
92	Kennedy, P.	RI1	John Loughlin	Lean D
93	Etheridge	NC2	Renee Ellmers	Lean D
94	Costa	CA20	Andy Vidak	Lean D
95	Loebsack	IA2	Marianette Miller-Meeks	Lean D
96	Oberstar	MN8	Chip Cravaack	Lean D
97	Braley	IA1	Benjamin Lange	Lean D
98	Hinchey	NY22	George Phillips	Lean D
99	Carnahan	MO3	Ed Martin	Lean D
100	Holden	PA17	Dave Argall	Likely D
101	Yarmuth	KY3	Todd Lally	Likely D
102	Bean	IL8	Joe Walsh	Likely D
103	Cardoza	CA18	Michael Berryhill	Likely D
104	Holt	NJ12	Scott Sipprelle	Likely D
105	Wu	OR1	Rob Cornilles	Likely D
106	Matheson	UT2	Morgan Philpot	Likely D
107	Ross	AR4	Beth Anne Rankin	Likely D
108	Ortiz	TX27	Blake Farenthold	Likely D
109	Pingree	ME1	Dean Scontras	Likely D
110	Lujan	NM3	Thomas E. Mullins	Likely D
111	Michaud	ME2	Jason Levesque	Likely D
112	Smith, Adam	WA9	Dick Muri	Likely D
113	Tsongas	MA5	Jon Golnik	Likely D
114	Barrow	GA12	Ray McKinney	Likely D
115	McCarthy, C.	NY4	Fran Becker	Likely D
116	Frank	MA4	Sean Bielat	Likely D
117	Cuellar	TX28	Bryan Underwood	Long Shot
118	Peterson	MN7	Lee Byberg	Long Shot
119	Miller, B.	NC13	Bill Randall	Long Shot
120	DeFazio	OR4	Art Robinson	Long Shot
121	Tierney	MA6	Bill Hudak	Long Shot
122	Dingell	MI15	Rob Steele	Long Shot
123	Cooper	TN5	David Hall	Long Shot
124	Schwartz	PA13	Carson Dee Adcock	Long Shot
125	Weiner	NY9	Bob Turner	Long Shot
126	Courtney	CT2	Janet Peckinpaugh	Long Shot
127	Kaptur	OH9	Rich Lott	Long Shot
128	Boren	OK2	Charles Thompson	Long Shot
129	Capps	CA23	Tom Watson	Long Shot
130	Doggett	TX25	Donna Campbell	Long Shot
131	Kucinich	OH10	Peter Corrigan	Long Shot
132	Hinojosa	TX15	Eddie Zamora	Long Shot
133	Polis	CO2	Stephen Bailey	Long Shot
134	Inslee	WA1	James Watkins	Long Shot
135	Hoyer	MD5	Charles Lollar	Long Shot
136	Castor	FL11	Mike Prendergast	Long Shot
137	Israel	NY2	John Gomez	Long Shot
138	Sarbanes	MD3	Jim Wilhelm	Long Shot
139	Costello	IL12	Teri Davis Newman	Long Shot
140	Ruppersberger	MD2	Marcelo Cardarelli	Long Shot
141	Green, G.	TX29	Roy Morales	Long Shot
142	Tonko	NY21	Theodore Danz	Long Shot
143	Gonzalez	TX20	Clayton Trotter	Long Shot
144	Carson	IN7	Marvin Scott	Long Shot
145	Filner	CA51	Nick Popaditch	Long Shot
146	Dicks	WA6	Doug Cloud	Long Shot
147	Price, D.	NC4	William "BJ" Lawson	Long Shot
148	Richardson	CA37	Star Parker	Long Shot
149	DeGette	CO1	Mike Fallon	Long Shot
150	Schakowsky	IL9	Joel Pollak	Long Shot

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