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99 House Democrat Seats Now in Serious Jeopardy, 116 in Play

Posted on Oct. 21, 10 | 01:53 PM by David Keating | Topic: Elections
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Prognosticator updates came in late yesterday and today from Cook and Sabato.  Cook moved an amazing 17 races toward Republicans and only three against them.  The three moving against the Republicans were incumbents and an open seat.  Cook moved many of the Democratic seats to toss-up status.    Sabato moved just one race, but that too went toward Repubicans.

There are still 116 Democratic seats as in play, according to my analysis of four of the top prognosticators who rate House races.  This means that at least one of the four rates the race as other than solidly Democratic.

The real shocker of this update is that 99 Democratic seats are highly at risk, up by 7 since the last update! 

    * 37 seats are very slightly to safely Republican. (Up 1)
    * 34 are toss ups. (Up 5)
    * 28 are leaning Democratic. (Up 1)

Another 17 seats are rated likely Democratic by at least one of the four, and in 6 cases two or more of the prognosticators (down 4).  So a total of 116 Democratic House seats are in play.

Below is the list of the 150 Democratic seats most likely to switch.  New for this week is a rating my model gives to each seat. For the top 116 it is based on the most aggressive prognosticator.  In the event of a tie, the prognosticator average breaks the tie and if the ranking is still tied, my computer rating of the seat breaks that tie.  Seats ranked 117-150 are based on my computer ranking of the seat.


I'm tracking four prognosticators who rate House races who I think do the best job -- Cook, Rothenberg, Sabato and CQ. My list of the Democratic seats most likely to switch is based on the most aggressive prognosticator in assessing the race in favor of the Republican.  I have found that the most aggressive one is usually a leading indicator this year.  As we get closer to the election and updates are more rapid from each prognosticator, I may take an average of the four.  Currently in the event of a tie between races, the prognosticator average breaks the tie and if the ranking is still tied, my computer rating of the voting behavior of the seat breaks that tie.  Seats not considered in play by the four prognosticators are ranked based on my computer ranking of the seat's voting behavior and quality of the Republican nominee's campaign.

This analysis does NOT predict how many seats will flip to Republican.  It just lists those that are at least somewhat competitive.  It is likely that only a relative few of the seats listed after ranking #99 will flip to Republican.  Don't expect more than at most a handful, if any, of the races labeled long shots to come in.

This list also does not include Republican seats in play.  There are two that are likely to flip to the Democrats -- DE-AL (Castle) and LA-2 (Cao).

Rank 2010 Incumbent District Nominee Rating
1 Melancon LA3 Jeff Landry Safe R
2 Gordon TN6 Dianne Black Safe R
3 Snyder AR2 Tim Griffin Likely R
4 Ellsworth IN8 Larry Bucshon Likely R
5 Moore, D. KS3 Kevin Yoder Likely R
6 Edwards, C. TX17 Bill Flores Likely R
7 Kilroy OH15 Steve Stivers Likely R
8 Massa NY29 Tom Reed Likely R
9 Markey CO4 Cory Gardner Likely R
10 Halvorson IL11 Adam Kinzinger Likely R
11 Kosmas FL24 Sandy Adams Likely R
12 Tanner TN8 Stephen Fincher Likely R
13 Dahlkemper PA3 Mike Kelly Likely R
14 Driehaus OH1 Steve Chabot Lean R
15 Kratovil MD1 Andy Harris Lean R
16 Kirkpatrick AZ1 Paul Gosar Lean R
17 Perriello VA5 Robert Hurt Lean R
18 Nye VA2 Scott Rigell Lean R
19 Stupak MI1 Dan Benishek Lean R
20 Shea-Porter NH1 Frank Guinta Lean R
21 Baird WA3 Jaime Herrera Lean R
22 Hodes NH2 Charlie Bass Lean R
23 Teague NM2 Steve Pearce Lean R
24 Grayson FL8 Dan Webster Lean R
25 Kagen WI8 Reid Ribble Lean R
26 Kanjorski PA11 Lou Barletta Lean R
27 Berry AR1 Rick Crawford Lean R
28 Pomeroy ND1 Richard Berg Lean R
29 Obey WI7 Sean Duffy Lean R
30 Sestak PA7 Pat Meehan Lean R
31 Childers MS1 Alan Nunnelee Lean R
32 Murphy, P. PA8 Michael Fitzpatrick Lean R
33 Kissell NC8 Harold Johnson Lean R
34 Titus NV3 Joe Heck Toss Up/Tilt R
35 Boyd FL2 Steve Southerland Toss Up/Tilt R
36 Boccieri OH16 Jim Renacci Toss Up/Tilt R
37 Space OH18 Bob Gibbs Toss Up/Tilt R
38 Mollohan WV1 David McKinley Toss Up
39 Schauer MI7 Tim Walberg Toss Up
40 Herseth Sandlin SD1 Kristi Noem Toss Up
41 Marshall GA8 Austin Scott Toss Up
42 Spratt SC5 Mick Mulvaney Toss Up
43 Mitchell AZ5 David Schweikert Toss Up
44 Arcuri NY24 Richard Hanna Toss Up
45 Hill IN9 Todd Young Toss Up
46 Carney PA10 Thomas Marino Toss Up
47 Foster IL14 Randy Hultgren Toss Up
48 Hall, J. NY19 Nan Hayworth Toss Up
49 Bright AL2 Martha Roby Toss Up
50 McNerney CA11 David Harmer Toss Up
51 Giffords AZ8 Jesse Kelly Toss Up
52 Minnick ID1 Raul Labrador Toss Up
53 Salazar CO3 Scott Tipton Toss Up
54 Schrader OR5 Scott Bruun Toss Up
55 Adler NJ3 Jon Runyan Toss Up
56 Klein FL22 Allen West Toss Up
57 Hare IL17 Bobby Schilling Toss Up
58 Rodriguez, C. TX23 Quico Canseco Toss Up
59 Davis, L. TN4 Scott DesJarlais Toss Up
60 Chandler KY6 Andy Barr Toss Up
61 Boswell IA3 Brad Zaun Toss Up
62 Owens NY23 Matt Doheny Toss Up
63 Bishop, S. GA2 Mike Keown Toss Up
64 Delahunt MA10 Jeff Perry Toss Up
65 Donnelly IN2 Jackie Walorski Swihart Toss Up
66 Skelton MO4 Vicky Hartzler Toss Up
67 Murphy NY20 Chris Gibson Toss Up
68 Wilson, C. OH6 Bill Johnson Toss Up
69 Taylor MS4 Steven Palazzo Toss Up
70 Grijalva AZ7 Ruth McClung Toss Up
71 Bishop NY1 Randy Altschuler Toss Up/Tilt D
72 Heinrich NM1 Johnathan L. Barela Lean D
73 Critz PA12 Tim Burns Lean D
74 Boucher VA9 Morgan Griffith Lean D
75 Larsen WA2 John Koster Lean D
76 Peters MI9 Rocky Raczkowski Lean D
77 Connolly VA11 Keith Fimian Lean D
78 Maffei NY25 Ann Marie Buerkle Lean D
79 Sanchez, Loretta CA47 Van Tran Lean D
80 Kind WI3 Dan Kapanke Lean D
81 McMahon NY13 Michael Grimm Lean D
82 Altmire PA4 Keith Rothfus Lean D
83 Walz MN1 Randy Demmer Lean D
84 Murphy, C. CT5 Sam Caliguri Lean D
85 Sutton OH13 Tom Ganley Lean D
86 Rahall WV3 Elliot "Spike" Maynard Lean D
87 Himes CT4 Dan Debicella Lean D
88 Shuler NC11 Jeff Miller Lean D
89 McIntyre NC7 Ilario Pantano Lean D
90 Perlmutter CO7 Ryan Frazier Lean D
91 Pallone Jr. NJ6 Anna Little Lean D
92 Kennedy, P. RI1 John Loughlin Lean D
93 Etheridge NC2 Renee Ellmers Lean D
94 Costa CA20 Andy Vidak Lean D
95 Loebsack IA2 Marianette Miller-Meeks Lean D
96 Oberstar MN8 Chip Cravaack Lean D
97 Braley IA1 Benjamin Lange Lean D
98 Hinchey NY22 George Phillips Lean D
99 Carnahan MO3 Ed Martin Lean D
100 Holden PA17 Dave Argall Likely D
101 Yarmuth KY3 Todd Lally Likely D
102 Bean IL8 Joe Walsh Likely D
103 Cardoza CA18 Michael Berryhill Likely D
104 Holt NJ12 Scott Sipprelle Likely D
105 Wu OR1 Rob Cornilles Likely D
106 Matheson UT2 Morgan Philpot Likely D
107 Ross AR4 Beth Anne Rankin Likely D
108 Ortiz TX27 Blake Farenthold Likely D
109 Pingree ME1 Dean Scontras Likely D
110 Lujan NM3 Thomas E. Mullins Likely D
111 Michaud ME2 Jason Levesque Likely D
112 Smith, Adam WA9 Dick Muri Likely D
113 Tsongas MA5 Jon Golnik Likely D
114 Barrow GA12 Ray McKinney Likely D
115 McCarthy, C. NY4 Fran Becker Likely D
116 Frank MA4 Sean Bielat Likely D
117 Cuellar TX28 Bryan Underwood Long Shot
118 Peterson MN7 Lee Byberg Long Shot
119 Miller, B. NC13 Bill Randall Long Shot
120 DeFazio OR4 Art Robinson Long Shot
121 Tierney MA6 Bill Hudak Long Shot
122 Dingell MI15 Rob Steele Long Shot
123 Cooper TN5 David Hall Long Shot
124 Schwartz PA13 Carson Dee Adcock Long Shot
125 Weiner NY9 Bob Turner Long Shot
126 Courtney CT2 Janet Peckinpaugh Long Shot
127 Kaptur OH9 Rich Lott Long Shot
128 Boren OK2 Charles Thompson Long Shot
129 Capps CA23 Tom Watson Long Shot
130 Doggett TX25 Donna Campbell Long Shot
131 Kucinich OH10 Peter Corrigan Long Shot
132 Hinojosa TX15 Eddie Zamora Long Shot
133 Polis CO2 Stephen Bailey Long Shot
134 Inslee WA1 James Watkins Long Shot
135 Hoyer MD5 Charles Lollar Long Shot
136 Castor FL11 Mike Prendergast Long Shot
137 Israel NY2 John Gomez Long Shot
138 Sarbanes MD3 Jim Wilhelm Long Shot
139 Costello IL12 Teri Davis Newman Long Shot
140 Ruppersberger MD2 Marcelo Cardarelli Long Shot
141 Green, G. TX29 Roy Morales Long Shot
142 Tonko NY21 Theodore Danz Long Shot
143 Gonzalez TX20 Clayton Trotter Long Shot
144 Carson IN7 Marvin Scott Long Shot
145 Filner CA51 Nick Popaditch Long Shot
146 Dicks WA6 Doug Cloud Long Shot
147 Price, D. NC4 William "BJ" Lawson Long Shot
148 Richardson CA37 Star Parker Long Shot
149 DeGette CO1 Mike Fallon Long Shot
150 Schakowsky IL9 Joel Pollak Long Shot
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