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Top 150 Most Vulnerable House Democratic Seats -- Final Update

Posted on Nov. 02, 10 | 05:21 PM by David Keating | Topic: Cap and Trade
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Charlie Cook yesterday updated his race ratings in 16 House races, and then after I posted what I thought was the last update, Stu Rotheberg last night updated two more races.  Both updates were in the Republican direction.

There are now 102 Democratic seats that can be classified as highly vulnerable, meaning no better than "lean Democratic."

Here are the current estimates by category:

    * 59 seats are very slightly to safely Republican.
    * 21 are toss ups.
    * 22 are leaning Democratic.

To provide more detail, 32 seats are lean to solidly Republican.  Another 27 are toss-up/tilt Republican.  20 are pure toss-up.  Only 1 is toss-up/tilt Democrat.

Another 18 seats (down 4) are rated likely Democratic by at least one of the four, and in 8 cases two or more of the prognosticators.

Below is the list of the 150 Democratic seats most likely to switch.


I'm tracking four prognosticators who rate House races who I think do the best job -- Cook, Rothenberg, Sabato and CQ. My list of the Democratic seats most likely to switch is based on the most aggressive prognosticator in assessing the race in favor of the Republican.  I have marked down Sabato to toss-up/tilt R if he is the only one at lean Republican.   That's because Sabato forces his final picks out of the toss-up category, so to make his estimates comparable to the other three, I make that adjustment.

In the event of a tie between races, the prognosticator average breaks the tie and if the ranking is still tied, my computer rating of the voting behavior of the seat breaks that tie.  Seats not considered in play by the four prognosticators are ranked based on my computer ranking of the seat's voting behavior and quality of the Republican nominee's campaign.

This analysis does NOT predict how many seats will flip to Republican.  It just lists those that are at least somewhat competitive.  It is likely that only a relative few of the seats listed after ranking #102 will flip to Republican.  Don't expect more than at most a handful, if any, of the races labeled long shots to come in.

This list also does not include Republican seats in play.  There are three that are likely to flip or leaning to the Democrats -- DE-AL (Castle, open), LA-2 (Cao), and IL-10 (Kirk, open).

Rank 2010 Incumbent District Nominee Rating
1 Melancon LA3 Jeff Landry Safe R  
2 Gordon TN6 Dianne Black Safe R  
3 Ellsworth IN8 Larry Bucshon Likely R  
4 Tanner TN8 Stephen Fincher Likely R  
5 Snyder AR2 Tim Griffin Likely R  
6 Moore, D. KS3 Kevin Yoder Likely R  
7 Kilroy OH15 Steve Stivers Likely R  
8 Markey CO4 Cory Gardner Likely R  
9 Grayson FL8 Dan Webster Likely R  
10 Halvorson IL11 Adam Kinzinger Likely R  
11 Dahlkemper PA3 Mike Kelly Likely R  
12 Edwards, C. TX17 Bill Flores Likely R  
13 Massa NY29 Tom Reed Likely R  
14 Kosmas FL24 Sandy Adams Likely R  
15 Boyd FL2 Steve Southerland Likely R  
16 Shea-Porter NH1 Frank Guinta Likely R  
17 Kratovil MD1 Andy Harris Lean R  
18 Driehaus OH1 Steve Chabot Lean R  
19 Kagen WI8 Reid Ribble Lean R  
20 Teague NM2 Steve Pearce Lean R  
21 Marshall GA8 Austin Scott Lean R  
22 Kirkpatrick AZ1 Paul Gosar Lean R  
23 Nye VA2 Scott Rigell Lean R  
24 Berry AR1 Rick Crawford Lean R  
25 Titus NV3 Joe Heck Lean R  
26 Perriello VA5 Robert Hurt Lean R  
27 Stupak MI1 Dan Benishek Lean R  
28 Baird WA3 Jaime Herrera Lean R  
29 Hodes NH2 Charlie Bass Lean R  
30 Sestak PA7 Pat Meehan Lean R  
31 Spratt SC5 Mick Mulvaney Lean R  
32 Boccieri OH16 Jim Renacci Lean R  
33 Davis, L. TN4 Scott DesJarlais Toss Up/Tilt R  
34 Pomeroy ND1 Richard Berg Toss Up/Tilt R  
35 Herseth Sandlin SD1 Kristi Noem Toss Up/Tilt R  
36 Foster IL14 Randy Hultgren Toss Up/Tilt R  
37 Salazar CO3 Scott Tipton Toss Up/Tilt R  
38 Hall, J. NY19 Nan Hayworth Toss Up/Tilt R  
39 Mitchell AZ5 David Schweikert Toss Up/Tilt R  
40 Kanjorski PA11 Lou Barletta Toss Up/Tilt R  
41 Murphy NY20 Chris Gibson Toss Up/Tilt R  
42 Murphy, P. PA8 Michael Fitzpatrick Toss Up/Tilt R  
43 Obey WI7 Sean Duffy Toss Up/Tilt R  
44 Hill IN9 Todd Young Toss Up/Tilt R  
45 Carney PA10 Thomas Marino Toss Up/Tilt R  
46 Mollohan WV1 David McKinley Toss Up/Tilt R  
47 Schauer MI7 Tim Walberg Toss Up/Tilt R  
48 Minnick ID1 Raul Labrador Toss Up/Tilt R  
49 Childers MS1 Alan Nunnelee Toss Up/Tilt R  
50 Adler NJ3 Jon Runyan Toss Up/Tilt R  
51 Hare IL17 Bobby Schilling Toss Up/Tilt R  
52 Space OH18 Bob Gibbs Toss Up/Tilt R  
53 McNerney CA11 David Harmer Toss Up/Tilt R  
54 Kissell NC8 Harold Johnson Toss Up/Tilt R  
55 Rodriguez, C. TX23 Quico Canseco Toss Up/Tilt R  
56 Klein FL22 Allen West Toss Up/Tilt R  
57 Bishop, S. GA2 Mike Keown Toss Up/Tilt R  
58 Bright AL2 Martha Roby Toss Up/Tilt R  
59 Owens NY23 Matt Doheny Toss Up/Tilt R  
60 Taylor MS4 Steven Palazzo Toss Up  
61 Arcuri NY24 Richard Hanna Toss Up  
62 Heinrich NM1 Johnathan L. Barela Toss Up  
63 Schrader OR5 Scott Bruun Toss Up  
64 Delahunt MA10 Jeff Perry Toss Up  
65 Skelton MO4 Vicky Hartzler Toss Up  
66 Giffords AZ8 Jesse Kelly Toss Up  
67 Boucher VA9 Morgan Griffith Toss Up  
68 Donnelly IN2 Jackie Walorski Swihart Toss Up  
69 Connolly VA11 Keith Fimian Toss Up  
70 Wilson, C. OH6 Bill Johnson Toss Up  
71 Bishop NY1 Randy Altschuler Toss Up  
72 Critz PA12 Tim Burns Toss Up  
73 Costa CA20 Andy Vidak Toss Up  
74 Larsen WA2 John Koster Toss Up  
75 Grijalva AZ7 Ruth McClung Toss Up  
76 Chandler KY6 Andy Barr Toss Up  
77 McIntyre NC7 Ilario Pantano Toss Up  
78 Pingree ME1 Dean Scontras Toss Up  
79 Oberstar MN8 Chip Cravaack Toss Up  
80 Etheridge NC2 Renee Ellmers Toss Up/Tilt D  
81 Peters MI9 Rocky Raczkowski Lean D  
82 Walz MN1 Randy Demmer Lean D  
83 Sanchez, Loretta CA47 Van Tran Lean D  
84 Boswell IA3 Brad Zaun Lean D  
85 Kind WI3 Dan Kapanke Lean D  
86 Loebsack IA2 Marianette Miller-Meeks Lean D  
87 Kennedy, P. RI1 John Loughlin Lean D  
88 Himes CT4 Dan Debicella Lean D  
89 Shuler NC11 Jeff Miller Lean D  
90 McMahon NY13 Michael Grimm Lean D  
91 Altmire PA4 Keith Rothfus Lean D  
92 Maffei NY25 Ann Marie Buerkle Lean D  
93 Murphy, C. CT5 Sam Caliguri Lean D  
94 Sutton OH13 Tom Ganley Lean D  
95 Perlmutter CO7 Ryan Frazier Lean D  
96 Braley IA1 Benjamin Lange Lean D  
97 Carnahan MO3 Ed Martin Lean D  
98 Ortiz TX27 Blake Farenthold Lean D  
99 Michaud ME2 Jason Levesque Lean D  
100 Hinchey NY22 George Phillips Lean D  
101 Frank MA4 Sean Bielat Lean D  
102 Matheson UT2 Morgan Philpot Lean D  
103 Holden PA17 Dave Argall Likely D  
104 Yarmuth KY3 Todd Lally Likely D  
105 Rahall WV3 Elliot "Spike" Maynard Likely D  
106 Bean IL8 Joe Walsh Likely D  
107 Cardoza CA18 Michael Berryhill Likely D  
108 Holt NJ12 Scott Sipprelle Likely D  
109 Wu OR1 Rob Cornilles Likely D  
110 Ross AR4 Beth Anne Rankin Likely D  
111 DeFazio OR4 Art Robinson Likely D  
112 Tierney MA6 Bill Hudak Likely D  
113 Cooper TN5 David Hall Likely D  
114 Lujan NM3 Thomas E. Mullins Likely D  
115 Kucinich OH10 Peter Corrigan Likely D  
116 Smith, Adam WA9 Dick Muri Likely D  
117 Tsongas MA5 Jon Golnik Likely D  
118 Barrow GA12 Ray McKinney Likely D  
119 McCarthy, C. NY4 Fran Becker Likely D  
120 Pallone Jr. NJ6 Anna Little Likely D  
121 Dicks WA6 Doug Cloud Long Shot  
122 Peterson MN7 Lee Byberg Long Shot  
123 Boren OK2 Charles Thompson Long Shot  
124 Cuellar TX28 Bryan Underwood Long Shot  
125 Miller, B. NC13 Bill Randall Long Shot  
126 Dingell MI15 Rob Steele Long Shot  
127 Price, D. NC4 William "BJ" Lawson Long Shot  
128 Doggett TX25 Donna Campbell Long Shot  
129 Courtney CT2 Janet Peckinpaugh Long Shot  
130 Filner CA51 Nick Popaditch Long Shot  
131 Kaptur OH9 Rich Lott Long Shot  
132 Weiner NY9 Bob Turner Long Shot  
133 Capps CA23 Tom Watson Long Shot  
134 Thompson, B. MS2 Bill Marcy Long Shot  
135 Schwartz PA13 Carson Dee Adcock Long Shot  
136 Polis CO2 Stephen Bailey Long Shot  
137 Cleaver MO5 Jacob Turk Long Shot  
138 Hinojosa TX15 Eddie Zamora Long Shot  
139 Inslee WA1 James Watkins Long Shot  
140 Israel NY2 John Gomez Long Shot  
141 Castor FL11 Mike Prendergast Long Shot  
142 Costello IL12 Teri Davis Newman Long Shot  
143 Carson IN7 Marvin Scott Long Shot  
144 Richardson CA37 Star Parker Long Shot  
145 Schakowsky IL9 Joel Pollak Long Shot  
146 Kildee MI5 John Kupiec Long Shot  
147 Tonko NY21 Theodore Danz Long Shot  
148 Higgins NY27 Lenny Roberto Long Shot  
149 Gonzalez TX20 Clayton Trotter Long Shot  
150 Sarbanes MD3 Jim Wilhelm Long Shot  
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