CFG PAC Updates - March 22nd, 2017
To: Interested Parties
From: Chip Englander
Re: Georgia – 06 Special Election
Date: March 22, 2017
On Monday Clout Research released a polling memo on the Georgia – 06 race that largely parallels internal data we have seen regarding this race. With less than a month until the primary, six key points stick out:
- Democrat Jon Ossof vs. Everyone Else
Right now, Ossof has consolidated the support of Democrat voters and as a result, enjoys a sizable gap between himself and the rest of the candidates. He is clearly benefiting from a crowded and fractured field of Republicans. His current lead should provide him cold comfort though, because his potential for growth in a runoff will be limited if the right Republican emerges from the primary.
- Karen Handel is Surprisingly Weak
Handel currently sits in second place, but her lead over Bob Gray is within the margin of error and her image is already extremely polarized, with her unfavorable numbers exceeding her favorables. That’s an extremely weak position for someone with her name identification numbers, but not all that surprising in this political environment. A career politician and perennial candidate with a penchant for losing is the wrong person for Republicans to advance to the runoff.
- Bob Gray is the Clear Alternative
Bob Gray is best positioned to break out from the rest of the field and enter the runoff against Ossof as a candidate who can win. Among all voters, Gray has the best image ratio of any Republican in the race with favorables outpacing unfavorables by nearly two-to-one. And among conservatives and Republicans Bob Gray is all upside with those voters holding nearly zero unfavorable opinions.
His positions on term limits, cutting government spending and plans for job growth along with his background as a business leader are all winners.
- Resources: Best Impact
Georgia – 06 sits in the Atlanta media market, making broadcast buys expensive and inefficient for SuperPACs unlike campaigns who receive a lower candidate rate. The Club for Growth will spend its resources on (1) digital (2) direct mail and (3) cable because it is the most efficient and best use of resources for this particular race.
- Voter Contact: Messaging
The Club for Growth will focus its efforts on educating voters about Karen Handel’s fiscally irresponsible record. Voters already have a lukewarm impression of her. Despite sky high name ID from near-perennial losing candidacies she barely polls ahead of first-time candidate Bob Gray.
- Bob Gray Best Candidate to Defeat Ossof
Karen Handel has higher unfavorable ratings than favorable. Despite universal name ID she already trails first-time candidate Ossof by approximately 20% depending on the poll you look at. Bob Gray has the best image ratio of all Republicans, and once in the runoff, is in the strongest position to keep the Tom Price seat Republican.