Club for Growth Polling: Matt Rosendale Has Major Lead in Republican Primary for Congress


Today, Club for Growth released poll results that show Republican Matt Rosendale has a strong statewide image and would lead a variety of potential Republican match-ups for Congress.  Specifically, Rosendale would beat former Congressman Denny Rehberg in either two or three-way primary match-ups for Congress.  Russell Fagg, one of Rosendale’s opponents in the Senate primary, would trail by large margins in two or three-way match-ups.

“This polling leaves no question about it: Matt Rosendale is the strongest Republican to run for Congress in Montana,” stated Club for Growth President David McIntosh.  “In the hypothetical match-ups, Rosendale trounces the competition.  And that’s because Matt Rosendale is a strong fiscal conservative who would represent the people of Montana well in Congress.”

The polling revealed:

  • Matt Rosendale has strong name ID among Republican primary voters.
    • Ninety-seven percent of Montana Republican primary voters have heard of Matt Rosendale, and he has favorable ratings nearly four times as high as unfavorables.
  • Rosendale would lead head-to-head against potential primary opponents.
    • Matt Rosendale would hold a seven-point lead over Denny Rehberg in a head-to-head primary match-up.
    • Against Russell Fagg, Rosendale would lead by an overwhelming 33 points.
  • Rosendale also leads a variety of three-way match-ups.
    • Matt Rosendale would lead in a partial rematch of last year’s Senate primary with 51% of the vote. Russell Fagg would be a distant second with 18%, and Al Olszewski would begin at 10% of the vote.
    • In other matchups, Rosendale leads and Fagg is in third. Rosendale leads Corey Stapleton by 29 with Fagg at 17%.
    • In a match-up including Denny Rehberg, Rosendale would lead with 37%, Rehberg would begin with 31%, and Fagg would be a distant third at 15%.

The survey was done for Club for Growth by WPA Intelligence.  WPA Intelligence conducted a live-interviewer poll of Montana Republican primary voters from February 24-26, 2019. The poll has a total sample size of n = 501 Republican primary voters and a margin of error of +4.4%. The polling sample was selected from file of all Montana registered voters with probability of selection in the sample proportional to each voter’s modeled likelihood of voting in the 2020 Republican primary. The sample was stratified by geography, gender, and age and 32% of interviews were conducted to cell-phone-only voters.